Please Wait.....
Report
Canada Commercial Real Estate - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
Market Report I 2026-02-09 I 150 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis
The Canada commercial real estate market was valued at USD 83.22 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 86.77 billion in 2026 to reach USD 106.89 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 4.27% during the forecast period (2026-2031). Investor sentiment has improved as lower policy rates narrow financing spreads, prompting pension funds and REITs to recycle capital into core assets while off-loading non-strategic properties. Immigration-led population growth, an uptick in near-shoring manufacturing, and persistent e-commerce adoption are widening demand for offices, logistics facilities, and mixed-use developments. Infrastructure spending, such as the USD 356 million CN rail upgrade in Quebec, is reinforcing trade corridors and boosting industrial site absorption. Meanwhile, Quebec's low-cost hydro power is luring data-center operators, deepening the province's appeal as a technology services hub.
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Trends and Insights
Surge in near-shoring-fueled industrial demand along the Ontario-Quebec corridor
Manufacturers moving production closer to North American consumers are absorbing warehouse and flex assets across the Windsor-Quebec City stretch, encouraged by Quebec's USD 4.05 billion competitiveness plan that counters U.S. trade barriers. Industrial leasing remains brisk in automotive and advanced-manufacturing clusters, even though national exports fell 2.8% in Q3 2024. Enhanced CN rail capacity, underpinned by a USD 356 million upgrade, lifts throughput and reduces transit times, strengthening the corridor's logistics profile. Developers are adding modern, high-clear-height facilities, yet construction pipelines stay disciplined amid cost inflation, preventing oversupply. Medium-term absorption is set to dominate new completions as distribution operators prioritize speed-to-market advantages.
Federal immigration targets adding 500 k residents annually boosting multi-family construction
Policy makers aim to admit 395 000 permanent residents in 2025, tapering to 365 000 by 2027, with 29% of arrivals holding construction trades skills. The influx intensifies demand for neighborhood retail, life-cycle office services, and urban logistics nodes in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. Stable household formation supports mixed-use projects near transit, narrowing the housing supply gap by an expected 670 000 units by 2027. Secondary cities such as Halifax and Saskatoon are also attracting newcomers, broadening the geographic footprint of commercial developments. Developers are leveraging modular designs that can pivot between residential and ground-floor commercial use to future-proof projects.
Elevated Bank of Canada policy rate keeping cap rates sticky and valuations volatile
Although the policy rate eased to 3% in 2025, mortgage spreads continue to shadow bond yields, sustaining a bid-ask gap that muffles transaction velocity. Cap-rate decompression is most visible in secondary office and retail, while prime industrial remains tighter. Smaller sponsors relying on bank credit are retreating, allowing well-capitalized REITs to consolidate positions. Forward hedging costs keep development starts subdued until financing markets stabilise further. Short-term, price discovery hinges on additional rate cuts and clarity around U.S. tariff policies.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Toronto tech-tenant expansion sustaining Class-A office pre-leasing despite hybrid workE-commerce penetration crossing 8% of retail sales driving last-mile urban logisticsConstruction-cost inflation averaging 11% CAGR pressuring development margins
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Offices accounted for 33.30% of the Canada commercial real estate market in 2025, reinforcing their role as the sector's primary revenue driver. Vacancy peaked at 18.4% nationwide yet stabilized as tenants traded up to modern space, compressing obsolescence risk in newer towers. Investment flowed into experiential upgrades-wellness centers, flexible collaboration zones, and renewable-powered HVAC-to retain knowledge-sector occupiers. The flight-to-quality dynamic, coupled with limited new-build starts, underpins rental resilience in Class-A assets across Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. Meanwhile, provincial incentives for office-to-residential conversion removed 870 000 sq ft from stock in Q1 2024, tightening prime supply and supporting rent growth in downtown nodes.
Logistics is the fastest-growing category, expanding at a 4.96% CAGR through 2031 as retailers target same-day fulfilment standards. Multi-level urban warehouses and cold-chain facilities attract institutional capital keen to capture steady cash flows. Developers emphasize power redundancy, dock-door ratios, and turnaround lanes compatible with electric delivery fleets. Despite elevated land prices near Toronto's Pearson Airport, demand consistently outruns supply, maintaining rent premiums and low structural vacancy. Investors employing cross-docking retrofits and mezzanine build-outs are boosting returns without large green-field risk. Collectively, offices and logistics together represent more than half of the Canada commercial real estate market size, signalling balanced exposure between legacy and growth-oriented assets.
The Canada Commercial Real Estate Report is Segmented by Property Type (Offices, Retail, Logistics and More), by Business Model (Rental and Sales), by End Use (Individuals / Households, Corporates & SMEs and More) and by Region (Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and More). The Report Offers Market Size and Forecasts in Value (USD) for all the Above Segments.
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
Brookfield Property Partners L.P. Cadillac Fairview Corporation Ltd. Oxford Properties Group Allied Properties REIT Dream Office REIT RioCan REIT Choice Properties REIT QuadReal Property Group BentallGreenOak (BGO) SmartCentres REIT H&R REIT First Capital REIT Cominar REIT CAPREIT Minto Apartment REIT Onni Group Westbank Corp. Anthem Properties Group Ltd. Pinnacle International Colliers International (Canada) CBRE Group (Canada) Avison Young (Canada) Cushman & Wakefield (Canada)
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support
1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 Research Methodology
3 Executive Summary
4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Commercial Real Estate Buying Trends - Socio-economic & Demographic Insights
4.3 Rental Yield Analysis
4.4 Capital-Market Penetration & REIT Presence
4.5 Regulatory Outlook
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Insights into Real Estate Tech and Startups Active in the Real Estate Segment
4.8 Insights into Existing and Upcoming Projects
4.9 Market Drivers
4.9.1 Surge in Nearshoring-Fueled Industrial Demand Along the Ontario-Quebec Corridor
4.9.2 Federal Immigration Targets Adding 500 K Residents Annually Boosting Multi-Family Construction
4.9.3 Toronto Tech-Tenant Expansion Sustaining Class-A Office Pre-Leasing Despite Hybrid Work
4.9.4 E-commerce Penetration Crossing 8 % of Retail Sales Driving Last-Mile Urban Logistics
4.9.5 Rapid Growth of Data-Center Investments Leveraging Quebec's Low-Cost Hydropower
4.9.6 REIT Capital Recycling & Pension-Fund Dry Powder Accelerating Mega-Deals in Core Markets
4.10 Market Restraints
4.10.1 Elevated Bank of Canada Policy Rate Keeping Cap Rates Sticky and Valuations Volatile
4.10.2 Construction-Cost Inflation Averaging 11 % CAGR Pressuring Development Margins
4.10.3 Tightening ESG Disclosure Requirements Raising Retrofit Capex for Legacy Assets
4.10.4 Suburban Office Vacancy Spikes Post-Pandemic Dampening Rental Growth Outside CBDs
4.11 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
4.11.1 Overview
4.11.2 Real Estate Developers & Contractors - Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
4.11.3 Real Estate Brokers & Agents - Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
4.11.4 Property Management Companies - Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
4.11.5 Insights on Valuation Advisory and Other Real Estate Services
4.11.6 State of the Building Materials Industry and Partnerships with Key Developers
4.11.7 Insights on Key Strategic Real-Estate Investors / Buyers in the Market
4.12 Porter's Five Forces
4.12.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.12.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.12.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.12.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.12.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value)
5.1 By Property Type
5.1.1 Offices
5.1.2 Retail
5.1.3 Logistics
5.1.4 Others (industrial real estate, hospitality real estate, etc.)
5.2 By Business Model
5.2.1 Sales
5.2.2 Rental
5.3 By End-user
5.3.1 Individuals / Households
5.3.2 Corporates & SMEs
5.3.3 Others
5.4 By Region (Province)
5.4.1 Ontario
5.4.2 Quebec
5.4.3 British Columbia
5.4.4 Alberta
5.4.5 Rest of Canada
6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles {(includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)}
6.4.1 Brookfield Property Partners L.P.
6.4.2 Cadillac Fairview Corporation Ltd.
6.4.3 Oxford Properties Group
6.4.4 Allied Properties REIT
6.4.5 Dream Office REIT
6.4.6 RioCan REIT
6.4.7 Choice Properties REIT
6.4.8 QuadReal Property Group
6.4.9 BentallGreenOak (BGO)
6.4.10 SmartCentres REIT
6.4.11 H&R REIT
6.4.12 First Capital REIT
6.4.13 Cominar REIT
6.4.14 CAPREIT
6.4.15 Minto Apartment REIT
6.4.16 Onni Group
6.4.17 Westbank Corp.
6.4.18 Anthem Properties Group Ltd.
6.4.19 Pinnacle International
6.4.20 Colliers International (Canada)
6.4.21 CBRE Group (Canada)
6.4.22 Avison Young (Canada)
6.4.23 Cushman & Wakefield (Canada)
7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
7.1 White-Space & Unmet-Need Assessment
- Not Sure / Need Reassuring
- Confirm Content
-
Content is provided by our partners and every effort is made to make Market Report details as clear as possible. If you are not sure the exact content you require is included in this study you can Contact us to double check. To do this you can:
Use the ‘? ASK A QUESTION’ below the license / prices and to the right of this box. This will come directly to our team who will work on dealing with your request as soon as possible.
Write to directly on support@scotts-international.com with details. Please include as much information as possible including the name of report or link so our staff will be able to work on you request.
Telephone us directly on 0048 603 394 346 and an experienced member of team will be on hand to answer.
-
- Sample Pages
-
With the vast majority of our partners we can obtain Sample Pages to support your decision. This is something we can arrange without revealing your personal details.
It is important to note that we will not be able to provide you the exact data or statistics such as Market Size and Forecasts. Sample pages usually confirm the layout or the Categories included in Charts and Graphs, excluding specific data.
To ask for Sample Pages by contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Check for Alternatives
-
Whilst we try to make our online platform as easy to use as possible there is always the possibility that a better alternative has not been found in your search.
To avoid this possibility Contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346 and a Senior Team Member can review your requirements and send a list of possibilities with opinions and recommendations.
-
- Confirm Content
- Prices / Formats / Delivery
- Prices
-
All prices are set by our partners and should be exactly the same as those listed on their own websites. We work on a Revenue share basis ensuring that you never pay more than what is offered elsewhere.
Should you find the price cheaper on another platform we recommend you to Contact us as we should be able to match this price. You can Contact us though through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Discounts
-
As we work in close partnership with our Partners from time to time we can secure discounts and assist with negotiations, this is part of our personalised service to you.
Discounts can sometimes be arranged for speedily placed orders; multiple report purchases or Higher License purchases.
To check if a Discount is possible please Contact our experienced team through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Available Currencies
-
Most Market Reports on our platform are listed in USD or EURO based on the wishes of our Partners. To avoid currency fluctuations and potential price differentiations we do not offer the possibility to change the currency online.
Should you wish to pay in a different currency to that advertised online we do accept payments in USD, EURO, GBP and PLN. The price will be calculated based on the relevant exchange rate taken from our National Bank.
To pay in a different above currency to that advertised online please Contact our team and a quotation will be sent within a couple of hours with payment details.
-
- Licenses
-
License options vary from Partner to Partner as is usually based on the number of Users that will benefitting from the report. It is very important that License ordered is not breached as this could have potential negative consequences for you individually or your employer.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Global Site License
-
The Global Site License is the most comprehensive license available. By selecting this license, the Market Report can be shared with other ‘Allowed Users’ and any other member of staff from the same organisation regardless of geographic location.
It is important to note that this may exclude Parent Companies or Subsidiaries.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Formats
-
The most common format is PDF, however in certain circumstances data may be present in Excel format or Online, especially in the case of Database or Directories. In addition, for certain higher license options a CD may also be provided.
If you have questions or need clarification about the specific formats we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Delivery
-
Delivery is fulfilled by our partners directly. Once an order has been placed we inform the partner by sharing the delivery email details given in the order process.
Delivery is usually made within 24 hours of an order being placed, however it may take longer should your order be placed prior to the weekend or if otherwise specified on the Market Report details page. Additionally, if details have been not fully completed in the Order process a delay in delivery is possible.
If a delay in delivery is expected you will be informed about it immediately.
-
- Shipping Charges
-
As most Market Reports are delivered in PDF format we almost never have to add additional Shipping Charges. If, however you are ordering a Higher License service or a specific delivery format (e.g. CD version) charges may apply.
If you are concerned about additional Shipping Charges we recommend you to Contact us to double check.
-
- Prices
- Ordering
- By Credit Card
-
We work in Partnership with PayU to ensure payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way. PayU is the e-payments division of Naspers.
Naspers operates in over 133 International Markets and ranks 3rd Globally in terms of the number of e-commerce customers served.
For more information on PayU please visit: https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us
-
- By Money Transfer
-
If you require an invoice prior to payment, this is possible. To ensure a speedy delivery of the Market Report we require all relevant company details and you agree to maximum payment terms of 30 days from receipt of order.
With our regular clients deliver of the Market Report can be made prior to receiving payment, however in some circumstances we may ask for payment to be received before arranging for the Market Report to be delivered.
-
- By Credit Card
- Security
- Website security
-
We have specifically partnered with leading International companies to protect your privacy by using different technologies and processes to ensure security.
Everything submitted to Scotts International is encrypted via SSL (Secure Socket Layer) and all personal information provided to Scotts International is stored on computer systems with limited access in controlled environments.
-
- Credit Card Security
-
We partner with PayU (https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us) to ensure all credit card payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way.
PayU offers 250+ various payment channels and eWallet services across 4 continents allowing buyers to pay electronically, whether on a computer or a mobile device.
-
- Website security