Report

US HVAC Services Market Analysis

The US HVAC services market size reached USD 28.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to climb to USD 38.8 billion by 2030, advancing at a 6.6% CAGR. The expansion reflects persistent demand for replacement of aging equipment, a robust construction pipeline, and sustained policy incentives that lower the cost of energy-efficient upgrades. Construction starts rose 9.9% month-over-month in April 2025, reinforcing a solid flow of installation contracts across commercial, residential, and industrial projects. Federal rebates under the Inflation Reduction Act, paired with state-level incentives, continue to stimulate homeowner retrofits and heat-pump adoption . Parallel shifts toward smart building controls and lower-GWP refrigerants are creating compliance-driven service opportunities that lift the recurring revenue mix. At the same time, a persistent shortage of skilled technicians tightens labor supply, lifts wages, and pressures small contractors, a dynamic that supports consolidation plays by capital-rich operators.

US HVAC Services Market Trends and Insights



Growth in Construction Activity

A 9.9% jump in nonresidential starts during April 2025 demonstrates that elevated materials costs have not derailed project pipelines, particularly in data centers, health care, and education facilities. The expansion funnels steady installation and commissioning work into the US HVAC services market, then converts into long-tail maintenance revenue once operations commence. As public construction outpaces private builds, service providers note a surge in government office retrofits, while data-center investment pushes premium demand for precision cooling. Contractors leveraging multi-trade capabilities position themselves for bundled mechanical-plus-controls scopes, reinforcing cross-sell potential in the US HVAC services market.

Large Installed Base of Aging HVAC Equipment

More than 90% of US households rely on equipment approaching the end of typical 15-20 year life cycles, creating predictable retrofit workstreams. On the commercial side, deferred upgrades are compounded by the impending phase-down of R-410A, which raises maintenance costs and accelerates replacement decisions. Service providers that combine refrigerant conversion expertise with energy-performance contracting secure multi-year engagements. In turn, those agreements lock in recurring revenue and boost wallet share within the US HVAC services market.

Shortage of Certified HVAC Technicians

Roughly 42,500 openings emerge each year, yet graduation pipelines lag the needs of new construction and retrofit workloads. Median wages hit USD 57,300 in 2023, lifting operating costs and eroding margins, especially for small businesses. Public-sector apprenticeship programs aim to fill the gap, but required lead times mean hiring remains a strategic bottleneck through the decade. Firms that build in-house academies and defined career ladders enjoy higher retention and mitigate this drag on the US HVAC services market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

Stricter Federal & State Energy-Efficiency Standards / Expansion of Smart/IoT-Enabled Service Models / Rising Refrigerant Transition & Compliance Costs /

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Preventive maintenance contracts held 39% of 2024 revenue, underscoring owner preference for predictable cost management and uptime protection. Commercial portfolios now embed equipment analytics that schedule service visits based on real-time runtime data rather than calendar intervals, which increases contract renewal rates and raises average revenue per unit. Energy-management and monitoring services are expanding at an 8.2% CAGR, fueled by compliance pressures and the need to optimize load profiles under dynamic utility tariffs. Contractors that couple monitoring with performance guarantees deepen wallet share inside the US HVAC services market.

Installation contracting remains correlated with construction spending, while emergency repair services thrive during peak-load events and extreme weather. Design engineering scopes are broadening to include decarbonization road-mapping and lifecycle cost analysis. Owners increasingly bundle mechanical, controls, and sustainability audits under a single provider, elevating the strategic relevance of full-service firms. As those contracts typically span three to five years, they stabilize cash flow and reinforce client captivity, which strengthens competitive positions across the US HVAC services market.

Cooling services accounted for 41% revenue in 2024, a figure that continues to climb as cooling-degree days trend upward in nearly all US climate zones.[3] Building-management system (BMS) and automation services compose the fastest-growing slice at a 9.1% CAGR, aligned with rising demand for fault detection and data-driven optimization. Heating services exhibit pronounced regional differences; heat-pump adoption is growing fastest in northern states where electrification incentives narrow the cost premium.

Ventilation and indoor-air-quality (IAQ) scopes benefit from occupant-health imperatives in schools and commercial offices. Refrigeration services face higher compliance spend due to the switch to A2L refrigerants, which is prompting specialized tool investments. Thermal-energy-storage retrofits, validated by California demonstrations that achieved 13% savings and 46% peak-load shifting, are emerging as ancillary revenue streams for performance-oriented contractors.As controls converge with mechanical systems, service providers capture incremental integration fees and create differentiated bundles within the US HVAC services market.

US HVAC Services Market is Segmented by Service Category (Design and Engineering, Installation Contracting and More), by System Type Served (Heating, Services, Cooling / Air-Conditioning Services and More ), by End User (Residential, and Commercial, and More), by Contract Model (Project-Based (One-Off), and More). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

EMCOR Services / Comfort Systems USA / Service Logic / Southland Industries / ACCO Engineered Systems / TDIndustries / ABM Technical Solutions / United Mechanical / J&J Air Conditioning / National HVAC Services / Lennox International / Nortek Global HVAC / Carrier Corporation / Goodman Manufacturing / Trane Technologies / Johnson Controls / Daikin Applied Americas / Mechanical Services of America / One Hour Heating and Air Conditioning / ARS/Rescue Rooter / McKinstry /

Additional Benefits:

The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format /
3 months of analyst support /