Please Wait.....
Report
United Arab Emirates Oil And Gas Downstream - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
Market Report I 2026-02-09 I 90 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
United Arab Emirates Oil And Gas Downstream Market Analysis
The United Arab Emirates Oil And Gas Downstream Market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 2.28 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 2.21 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 2.67 billion, growing at 3.2% CAGR over 2026-2031.
ADNOC's USD 45 billion investment program anchors the current expansion wave, while Asia-bound product exports, growth in bunkering in Fujairah, and refinery-to-petrochemical integration collectively reinforce revenue visibility throughout the period. Integrated complexes, such as Ruwais, now operate as export-oriented hubs that leverage crude flexibility upgrades, digital twin optimization, and low-carbon LNG inputs to sustain competitive margins. Rapid capacity additions in India and China, tightening carbon finance criteria, and maritime security disruptions introduce volatility; yet, the UAE's strategic location and policy stability provide structural offsets. Strategic partnerships with major companies like ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies enable technology transfer without compromising local control, thereby supporting balanced market maturation.
United Arab Emirates Oil And Gas Downstream Market Trends and Insights
ADNOC USD 45 billion downstream investment program reshapes capacity landscape
The program stands as the region's single largest downstream expansion, directing more than USD 20 billion into Ruwais alone for petrochemical and crude-flexibility projects that collectively add 6.6 million tonnes per year of polymer capacity by 2028.Linde Engineering's FEED award for the EU2 ethane cracker will increase ethylene output by 230,000 t/year, lifting Borouge's annual EBITDA by an estimated USD 165-200 million. Feedstock optionality enables processing of heavier crudes, protecting margins against price swings while vertically integrating with ADNOC's upstream assets. The initiative also backs low-carbon LNG and carbon-capture pilots that anticipate future export regulations on embedded emissions. As projects are completed, the United Arab Emirates' oil and gas downstream market is expected to deepen regional product self-sufficiency and pivot from a net import to a net export status in select chemicals.
Rising Asian demand transforms UAE export orientation
China and India now absorb the majority of UAE refined-product exports, prompting domestic refineries to recalibrate product slates to Asian gasoline and diesel specifications. Seven-to-ten-day sailing advantages over Atlantic suppliers underpin sustainable cost leadership, but new mega-refineries in Asia shrink the arbitrage window, necessitating differentiation through reliability and quality. The United Arab Emirates oil and gas downstream market, therefore, invests in real-time optimization tools to protect crack spreads when Asian demand softens. Greater exposure to sanctioned crude discounts flowing into Asia creates indirect pricing pressure on UAE exports, reinforcing the need for value-added petrochemical diversification.
Project-financing barriers intensify due to carbon-intensity scrutiny
Multilateral lenders increasingly exclude projects without integrated CCS or renewable power sourcing, compelling UAE operators to seek alternative finance at premiums of 150-200 basis points over historic norms. Embedded CCS can increase capital costs by 15-25%, extending payback horizons beyond traditional bank tenures. Sovereign wealth funds partly offset the gap but often demand local-content guarantees that elongate procurement cycles. This constraint particularly weighs on grassroots petrochemical complexes exceeding USD 5 billion in capital expenditure (capex), challenging the growth pipeline that underpins the United Arab Emirates' oil and gas downstream market size.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Fujairah bunkering hub capitalizes on maritime route optimizationAI and digital-twin technology optimization enhances operational efficiencyCompetition from Asian mega-refineries pressures export markets
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Refineries contributed 59.05% of 2025 revenue, yet they posted a modest 2.0% CAGR as the base matures. Petrochemical plants, although smaller, are expected to deliver a robust 4.7% CAGR, increasing their share of the United Arab Emirates' oil and gas downstream market size to nearly one-third by 2031. The refinery segment remains pivotal, leveraging integrated crude supply, established utilities, and upgraded residue-conversion units that yield light products above 85%. Digital-twin rollouts further defend margins by aligning run plans with Asian crack-spread signals received in real-time. In parallel, petrochemicals capture higher EBITDA per barrel equivalent through polymer production. Borouge's expansion to 6.6 million tonnes per year, combined with the planned merger of the Borouge Group International, creates scale advantages, enabling feedstock swap flexibility across its global assets. Backward integration via MERAM ethane capture decreases external feed reliance, safeguarding cost competitiveness. As a result, petrochemicals are poised to drive absolute earnings growth, even as refinery cash flows stabilize, thereby reinforcing the long-term resilience of the United Arab Emirates' oil and gas downstream market.
The United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Downstream Market Report is Segmented by Type (Refineries and Petrochemical Plants), Product Type (Refined Petroleum Products, Petrochemicals, and Lubricants), and Distribution Channel (Direct Sales/Wholesale, Distributors/Commercial, and Retail). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) ADNOC Refining ADNOC Gas Processing Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) Emirates General Petroleum Corp. (Emarat) Abu Dhabi Polymers Co. (Borouge) ADNOC Distribution Sharjah National Oil Corporation (SNOC) Fujairah Oil Terminal FZC Brooge Energy Ltd. (BPGIC) Horizon Terminals Ltd. / Vopak Horizon Fujairah Petrochem Middle East Gulf Petrochem Group Fertiglobe plc Proman AG TotalEnergies SE Royal Dutch Shell plc Exxon Mobil Corp. Sunrise Petroleum FZC National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC) Linde plc E3 Energy Group
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support
1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 Research Methodology
3 Executive Summary
4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 ADNOC US$45 bn downstream & petrochemicals investment program
4.2.2 Rising Asian demand pulling UAE refined-product exports
4.2.3 Fujairah's emergence as regional bunkering & storage hub
4.2.4 Ruwais crude-flexibility & refinery-petchem integration upgrades
4.2.5 Hydrogen-ready multi-energy retail network roll-out
4.2.6 AI / digital-twin deployment boosting refinery margins
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Rising project financing barriers from carbon-intensity scrutiny
4.3.2 Competition from new mega-refineries in India & China
4.3.3 Gulf/Red-Sea maritime security disruptions elevating logistics risk
4.3.4 EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on fuel imports
4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Landscape
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Refining Capacity Analysis
4.8 Porters Five Forces
4.8.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.8.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.8.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.8.5 Competitive Rivalry
4.9 PESTLE Analysis
5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts
5.1 By Type
5.1.1 Refineries
5.1.2 Petrochemical Plants
5.2 By Product Type
5.2.1 Refined Petroleum Products
5.2.2 Petrochemicals
5.2.3 Lubricants
5.3 By Distribution Channel
5.3.1 Direct Sales/Wholesale
5.3.2 Distributors/Commercial
5.3.3 Retail
6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
6.4.2 ADNOC Refining
6.4.3 ADNOC Gas Processing
6.4.4 Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC)
6.4.5 Emirates General Petroleum Corp. (Emarat)
6.4.6 Abu Dhabi Polymers Co. (Borouge)
6.4.7 ADNOC Distribution
6.4.8 Sharjah National Oil Corporation (SNOC)
6.4.9 Fujairah Oil Terminal FZC
6.4.10 Brooge Energy Ltd. (BPGIC)
6.4.11 Horizon Terminals Ltd. / Vopak Horizon Fujairah
6.4.12 Petrochem Middle East
6.4.13 Gulf Petrochem Group
6.4.14 Fertiglobe plc
6.4.15 Proman AG
6.4.16 TotalEnergies SE
6.4.17 Royal Dutch Shell plc
6.4.18 Exxon Mobil Corp.
6.4.19 Sunrise Petroleum FZC
6.4.20 National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC)
6.4.21 Linde plc
6.4.22 E3 Energy Group
7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
7.1 White-Space & Unmet-Need Assessment
- Not Sure / Need Reassuring
- Confirm Content
-
Content is provided by our partners and every effort is made to make Market Report details as clear as possible. If you are not sure the exact content you require is included in this study you can Contact us to double check. To do this you can:
Use the ‘? ASK A QUESTION’ below the license / prices and to the right of this box. This will come directly to our team who will work on dealing with your request as soon as possible.
Write to directly on support@scotts-international.com with details. Please include as much information as possible including the name of report or link so our staff will be able to work on you request.
Telephone us directly on 0048 603 394 346 and an experienced member of team will be on hand to answer.
-
- Sample Pages
-
With the vast majority of our partners we can obtain Sample Pages to support your decision. This is something we can arrange without revealing your personal details.
It is important to note that we will not be able to provide you the exact data or statistics such as Market Size and Forecasts. Sample pages usually confirm the layout or the Categories included in Charts and Graphs, excluding specific data.
To ask for Sample Pages by contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Check for Alternatives
-
Whilst we try to make our online platform as easy to use as possible there is always the possibility that a better alternative has not been found in your search.
To avoid this possibility Contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346 and a Senior Team Member can review your requirements and send a list of possibilities with opinions and recommendations.
-
- Confirm Content
- Prices / Formats / Delivery
- Prices
-
All prices are set by our partners and should be exactly the same as those listed on their own websites. We work on a Revenue share basis ensuring that you never pay more than what is offered elsewhere.
Should you find the price cheaper on another platform we recommend you to Contact us as we should be able to match this price. You can Contact us though through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Discounts
-
As we work in close partnership with our Partners from time to time we can secure discounts and assist with negotiations, this is part of our personalised service to you.
Discounts can sometimes be arranged for speedily placed orders; multiple report purchases or Higher License purchases.
To check if a Discount is possible please Contact our experienced team through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Available Currencies
-
Most Market Reports on our platform are listed in USD or EURO based on the wishes of our Partners. To avoid currency fluctuations and potential price differentiations we do not offer the possibility to change the currency online.
Should you wish to pay in a different currency to that advertised online we do accept payments in USD, EURO, GBP and PLN. The price will be calculated based on the relevant exchange rate taken from our National Bank.
To pay in a different above currency to that advertised online please Contact our team and a quotation will be sent within a couple of hours with payment details.
-
- Licenses
-
License options vary from Partner to Partner as is usually based on the number of Users that will benefitting from the report. It is very important that License ordered is not breached as this could have potential negative consequences for you individually or your employer.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Global Site License
-
The Global Site License is the most comprehensive license available. By selecting this license, the Market Report can be shared with other ‘Allowed Users’ and any other member of staff from the same organisation regardless of geographic location.
It is important to note that this may exclude Parent Companies or Subsidiaries.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Formats
-
The most common format is PDF, however in certain circumstances data may be present in Excel format or Online, especially in the case of Database or Directories. In addition, for certain higher license options a CD may also be provided.
If you have questions or need clarification about the specific formats we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Delivery
-
Delivery is fulfilled by our partners directly. Once an order has been placed we inform the partner by sharing the delivery email details given in the order process.
Delivery is usually made within 24 hours of an order being placed, however it may take longer should your order be placed prior to the weekend or if otherwise specified on the Market Report details page. Additionally, if details have been not fully completed in the Order process a delay in delivery is possible.
If a delay in delivery is expected you will be informed about it immediately.
-
- Shipping Charges
-
As most Market Reports are delivered in PDF format we almost never have to add additional Shipping Charges. If, however you are ordering a Higher License service or a specific delivery format (e.g. CD version) charges may apply.
If you are concerned about additional Shipping Charges we recommend you to Contact us to double check.
-
- Prices
- Ordering
- By Credit Card
-
We work in Partnership with PayU to ensure payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way. PayU is the e-payments division of Naspers.
Naspers operates in over 133 International Markets and ranks 3rd Globally in terms of the number of e-commerce customers served.
For more information on PayU please visit: https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us
-
- By Money Transfer
-
If you require an invoice prior to payment, this is possible. To ensure a speedy delivery of the Market Report we require all relevant company details and you agree to maximum payment terms of 30 days from receipt of order.
With our regular clients deliver of the Market Report can be made prior to receiving payment, however in some circumstances we may ask for payment to be received before arranging for the Market Report to be delivered.
-
- By Credit Card
- Security
- Website security
-
We have specifically partnered with leading International companies to protect your privacy by using different technologies and processes to ensure security.
Everything submitted to Scotts International is encrypted via SSL (Secure Socket Layer) and all personal information provided to Scotts International is stored on computer systems with limited access in controlled environments.
-
- Credit Card Security
-
We partner with PayU (https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us) to ensure all credit card payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way.
PayU offers 250+ various payment channels and eWallet services across 4 continents allowing buyers to pay electronically, whether on a computer or a mobile device.
-
- Website security