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Swaziland Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Country Risk Report I 2018-08-22 I 35 Pages I Fitch Solutions (formerly BMI Research)

Swaziland's political environment will deteriorate over the coming months as fiscal pressures and faltering economic growth will lead to unpredictable policy decisions and an increase in public frustrations. While the prospects of the latter leading to widespread unrest are relatively remote given the king's tight stran- glehold on power, an Arab Spring-like spontaneous outburst of public anger cannot be completely discounted. Weaker growth in South Africa will weigh on demand for Swaziland's exports and on government spending via lower revenues from the regional customs union. Although the latter will only be felt in 2019, given the lag between revenue collection and disbursement, the dire state of Swaziland's fiscal accounts mean that fiscal policy will place a drag on growth in 2018 too. Swaziland's fiscal deficit will remain sizable over the next decade due to waning S

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