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Report
Sri Lanka Telecom MNO - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
Market Report I 2026-02-09 I 90 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
Sri Lanka Telecom MNO Market Analysis
The Sri Lanka Telecom MNO Market was valued at USD 1.32 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 1.39 billion in 2026 to reach USD 1.83 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 5.61% during the forecast period (2026-2031).
Strong 4G migration, pending 5G launches, and policy-backed digitization programs are lifting service demand even as consumer purchasing power remains constrained by inflation. Post-merger scale efficiencies are freeing cash for rural coverage build-outs, helping operators translate capacity gains into wider market reach. Enterprise cloud-connect deals with free-trade-zone manufacturers are giving the Sri Lanka telecom MNO market an additional high-margin growth lever, while national e-government projects are locking in long-term bandwidth commitments from the public sector. Against this backdrop, operators are prioritizing premium data bundles, satellite back-haul partnerships, and undersea cable resale to diversify revenue and hedge foreign-exchange risk.
Sri Lanka Telecom MNO Market Trends and Insights
Rapid 4G/5G Subscriber Migration Lifts ARPU
Continued substitution of 3G connections with 4G SIMs is driving a steady rise in average revenue per user as data usage per subscriber scales past 6 GB per month . Dialog's first-quarter 2025 revenue climbed 20% year-on-year on the back of higher-value 4G bundles, underscoring the elasticity of demand for faster service tiers . SLT-Mobitel's nationally recognized 22.46 Mbps median download speed positions the carrier to convert speed-sensitive users even before full 5G commercialization. Operators have already completed multiple 5G trials topping 1.55 Gbps, signalling a near-term leap in performance that is expected to accelerate premium-tier adoption once commercial spectrum is released. Active public consultations on 5G rules by the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission ensure spectrum road-maps remain aligned with network-investment cycles.
Post-Merger Cap-Ex Synergies Freeing Cash for Rural Coverage
The 2024 amalgamation of Airtel Lanka into Dialog eliminated duplicate towers, core switches, and retail overhead, releasing roughly USD 60 million per year that is being redeployed into green-field coverage for low-population districts. SLT-Mobitel's co-investment in the "Gamata Sanniwedanaya" rural tower program shows how freed capital is widening service footprints into historically underserved zones. Hutchison Lanka has earmarked USD 200 million through 2027 to lift population coverage to 90%, signaling industry-wide conviction that rural take-rates will be margin-accretive once scale is reached. Reduced network redundancy has also moderated wholesale bandwidth costs, allowing operators to maintain profitability in spite of elevated energy tariffs.
Currency-Linked Device Import Inflation Squeezing Uptake
Rupee depreciation has inflated CIF values for 4G and 5G smartphones by more than 30% since 2023, pushing entry-level handset prices beyond LKR 45,000 for large-screen models, a level that stalls upgrade cycles among prepaid users. The affordability gap slows migration to data-first bundles and curbs ARPU headroom. Operators have rolled out zero-interest microloans, but delinquency risks compel cautious quota allocation, limiting reach.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Government Push for Digital Public Services (e-Gov, e-Health)Surge in Enterprise Cloud-Connect Deals with Free-Trade-Zone FirmsHigh Sector-Specific Taxes Dampening Demand
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Data and internet services captured 47.35% of the Sri Lankan telecom MNO market share in 2025, underpinning revenue leadership as subscriber behavior pivots from voice packages to gigabyte-tiered bundles. The Sri Lanka telecom MNO market size tied to IoT and M2M connectivity is still modest, but its 5.71% CAGR positions it as a structural growth engine, especially for industrial automation and smart logistics applications.
Operators recognize that over-the-top messaging substitutes continue to cannibalize legacy SMS income; consequently, they are bundling zero-rated OTT access with premium data packs to reinforce stickiness among heavy users. Dialog Television's direct-to-home platform, delivered under the same subscriber identity as mobile accounts, cross-sells high-definition streaming while leveraging single-sign-on convenience. SLT-Mobitel's NB-IoT offerings, spanning smart metering and asset tracking, are building an annuity-style revenue pool whose margins exceed consumer voice lines by 600 basis points. These product strategies collectively safeguard carrier relevance as global content players intensify competition.
The Sri Lanka Telecom MNO Market Report is Segmented by Service Type (Voice Services, Data and Internet Services, Messaging Services, Iot and M2M Services, OTT and PayTV Services, and Other Services), and End User (Enterprises, Consumer). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
Dialog Axiata PLC SLT-Mobitel (Sri Lanka Telecom PLC) Hutchison Telecommunications Lanka (Pvt) Ltd.
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Regulatory and Policy Framework
4.3 Spectrum Landscape and Competitive Holdings
4.4 Telecom Industry Ecosystem
4.5 Macroeconomic and External Drivers
4.6 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.6.1 Competitive Rivalry
4.6.2 Threat of New Entrants
4.6.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.6.4 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.6.5 Threat of Substitutes
4.7 Key MNO KPIs (2020-2025)
4.7.1 Unique Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rate
4.7.2 Mobile Internet Users and Penetration Rate
4.7.3 SIM Connections by Access Technology and Penetration
4.7.4 Cellular IoT / M2M Connections
4.7.5 Broadband Connections (Mobile and Fixed)
4.7.6 ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)
4.7.7 Average Data Usage per Subscription (GB/month)
4.8 Market Drivers
4.8.1 Rapid 4G/5G subscriber migration lifts ARPU
4.8.2 Post-merger cap-ex synergies freeing cash for rural coverage
4.8.3 Government push for digital public services (e-gov, e-health)
4.8.4 Surge in enterprise cloud-connect deals with free-trade-zone firms
4.8.5 Under-sea cable capacity resale to Maldives and E-Africa corridors
4.8.6 Fintech-enabled micro-data-bundles for informal workers
4.9 Market Restraints
4.9.1 Currency-linked device import inflation squeezing uptake
4.9.2 High sector-specific taxes (Telecom Levy, VAT) dampening demand
4.9.3 Delay in 700 MHz refarming slows nationwide 5G roll-out
4.9.4 Chronic grid outages drive opex spikes for tower power
4.10 Technological Outlook
4.11 Analysis of key business models in Telecom Sector
4.12 Analysis of Pricing Models and Pricing
5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)
5.1 Overall Telecom Revenue and ARPU
5.2 Service Type
5.2.1 Voice Services
5.2.2 Data and Internet Services
5.2.3 Messaging Services
5.2.4 IoT and M2M Services
5.2.5 OTT and PayTV Services
5.2.6 Other Services (VAS, Roaming and International Services, Enterprise and Wholesale Services, etc.)
5.3 End-user
5.3.1 Enterprises
5.3.2 Consumer
6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves and Investments by key vendors, 2023-2025
6.3 Market share analysis for MNOs, 2024
6.4 Product Benchmarking Analysis for mobile network services
6.5 MNO snapshot (subscribers, churn rate, ARPU, etc.)
6.6 Company Profiles* of MNOs (Includes Business Overview | Service Portfolio | Financials | Business Strategy and Recent Developments | SWOT Analysis)
6.6.1 Dialog Axiata PLC
6.6.2 SLT-Mobitel (Sri Lanka Telecom PLC)
6.6.3 Hutchison Telecommunications Lanka (Pvt) Ltd.
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