Please Wait.....
Report
South Africa Solar Energy - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
Market Report I 2026-02-09 I 127 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
South Africa Solar Energy Market Analysis
The South Africa Solar Energy Market was valued at 8.75 gigawatt in 2025 and estimated to grow from 9.76 gigawatt in 2026 to reach 16.88 gigawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 11.58% during the forecast period (2026-2031).
Growth hinges on accelerating coal-to-solar substitution, record corporate demand for clean electricity, and persistent grid instability that prompts policymakers and investors to adopt proven photovoltaic solutions. Declining module and balance-of-system costs continue to compress levelized tariffs below Eskom's new-build coal benchmarks, while streamlined permitting under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) shortens project lead times. A widening pipeline of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) from mining companies and data-center operators diversifies offtake structures, unlocking new capital from domestic banks, international climate-finance facilities, and development finance institutions. Nevertheless, grid bottlenecks in the Northern Cape, higher storage integration costs, and land-use conflicts in biodiversity zones insert friction that moderates deployment velocity and shapes technology choices across segments.
South Africa Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights
Declining PV Module Prices and Balance-of-System Cost Reductions
Average global module prices fell 42% between 2023 and 2024, pulling South African utility-scale tariffs to ZAR 0.58 per kWh, which is well below the recently commissioned coal plants that exceed ZAR 1.20 per kWh. Comparable cost compression across inverters, trackers, and mounting structures widens project margins and increases bid competitiveness in REIPPPP Bid Window 7, which procured 2.6 GW of new solar capacity in 2024. Developers increasingly adopt bifacial modules and dual-axis trackers that elevate energy yields by up to 35% in the high-irradiation Northern Cape. Because hardware is mostly denominated in U.S. dollars, currency volatility introduces procurement risk, prompting sponsors to secure forward contracts and deepen local-content partnerships that temper exchange-rate exposure. These dynamics position cost leadership as the primary lever for differentiation among EPC contractors and developers competing for forthcoming Bid Window 8 capacity.
Robust REIPPPP Pipeline and Tender Schedule Acceleration
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has condensed tender cycles from an average of 24-36 months in earlier rounds to 18 months in Bid Window 7, in part through standardized grid studies and fast-track environmental approvals. The agency plans a 3 GW Bid Window 8 with a mandatory 4-hour storage requirement on 40% of the awarded capacity, reflecting the government's intent to secure dispatchable renewable profiles suitable for evening peaks. Newly instituted delay penalties sharpen execution discipline, while provincial development zones in the Northern Cape offer pre-approved sites that shave up to one year off typical development timelines. As a result, financiers perceive lower permitting risk, which drives narrower spreads on construction debt and improves the bankability of larger, multi-technology projects.
Grid Connection Bottlenecks and Curtailment Risk Escalation
Transmission circuits in the Northern Cape operate at 85-90% capacity utilization, extending grid-access queues beyond 36 months for new projects and triggering curtailment events that shaved 15-20% of annual output from certain operational plants in 2024. Eskom's planned ZAR 12 billion Aries-Oranjemond reinforcement faces funding gaps, deferring completion to 2027-2028. Revised grid codes now require advanced frequency response capabilities, adding ZAR 0.15-0.25 million per MW in control hardware expenses. Time-of-use access charges also shift cost responsibility to generators, challenging returns on merchant PPAs unless coupled with storage that arbitrages peak tariffs.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Urgent Grid-Stability Needs amid Eskom Load-SheddingAbundant DNI & Solar Irradiation LevelsHigh Upfront Capital Expenditure for Storage-Ready Project Configurations
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Photovoltaic assets represented 92.62% of the installed capacity in 2025, translating to a dominant revenue position in the South African solar energy market. The segment maintained an 8.2% compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024 and now benefits from expanded REIPPPP allocations and surging private PPAs. CSP, although currently small, is poised for a 14.35% CAGR through 2031, as mining firms and industrial users favor its dispatchable profile, which aligns output with evening system peaks. The South Africa solar energy market size for CSP projects is projected to triple by the end of the decade, catalyzing a modest rebalancing of the technology mix without eroding PV's foundational role.
PV's momentum also stems from rapid innovation. Bifacial modules paired with single-axis trackers increase capacity factors to the 28-32% range, while laboratory advances in perovskite-silicon tandem cells indicate future efficiencies exceeding 35%. In contrast, CSP facilities such as Kathu and Bokpoort achieve capacity factors of nearly 65% thanks to 4.5-hour molten-salt storage, which supports grid stabilization after sunset. Hybrid designs that co-locate PV panels with CSP towers are under evaluation to blend low-cost daytime energy with dispatchable evening output, potentially reducing levelized costs by up to 18%.
The South Africa Solar Energy Market Report is Segmented by Technology (Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrated Solar Power), Grid Type (On-Grid and Off-Grid), and End-User (Utility-Scale, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
Scatec ASA ACWA Power Enel Green Power South Africa Juwi Renewable Energies SunPower Corporation Mainstream Renewable Power EDF Renewables South Africa Canadian Solar Inc. First Solar Inc. TotalEnergies Renewables SA Abengoa Solar Sonnedix Iberdrola JA Solar LONGi Solar Trina Solar Red Rocket South Africa Globeleq Mulilo Energy Seraphim Solar SA
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support
1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 Research Methodology
3 Executive Summary
4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Declining PV module prices and BOS costs
4.2.2 Robust REIPPPP pipeline & tender schedule
4.2.3 Urgent grid-stability needs amid Eskom load-shedding
4.2.4 Abundant DNI & solar irradiation levels
4.2.5 Corporate PPAs from mining & data-center operators
4.2.6 International climate-finance inflows (JET-P, GFANZ, etc.)
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Grid-connection bottlenecks & curtailment risk
4.3.2 High upfront capex for storage-ready projects
4.3.3 Land-use conflicts in Northern Cape biodiversity zones
4.3.4 Local content rules causing supply-chain delays
4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Outlook
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Porters Five Forces
4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
4.8 PESTLE Analysis
5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts
5.1 By Technology
5.1.1 Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
5.1.2 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
5.2 By Grid Type
5.2.1 On-Grid
5.2.2 Off-Grid
5.3 By End-User
5.3.1 Utility-Scale
5.3.2 Commercial and Industrial (C&I)
5.3.3 Residential
5.4 By Component (Qualitative Analysis)
5.4.1 Solar Modules/Panels
5.4.2 Inverters (String, Central, Micro)
5.4.3 Mounting and Tracking Systems
5.4.4 Balance-of-System and Electricals
5.4.5 Energy Storage and Hybrid Integration
6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 Scatec ASA
6.4.2 ACWA Power
6.4.3 Enel Green Power South Africa
6.4.4 Juwi Renewable Energies
6.4.5 SunPower Corporation
6.4.6 Mainstream Renewable Power
6.4.7 EDF Renewables South Africa
6.4.8 Canadian Solar Inc.
6.4.9 First Solar Inc.
6.4.10 TotalEnergies Renewables SA
6.4.11 Abengoa Solar
6.4.12 Sonnedix
6.4.13 Iberdrola
6.4.14 JA Solar
6.4.15 LONGi Solar
6.4.16 Trina Solar
6.4.17 Red Rocket South Africa
6.4.18 Globeleq
6.4.19 Mulilo Energy
6.4.20 Seraphim Solar SA
7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment
- Not Sure / Need Reassuring
- Confirm Content
-
Content is provided by our partners and every effort is made to make Market Report details as clear as possible. If you are not sure the exact content you require is included in this study you can Contact us to double check. To do this you can:
Use the ‘? ASK A QUESTION’ below the license / prices and to the right of this box. This will come directly to our team who will work on dealing with your request as soon as possible.
Write to directly on support@scotts-international.com with details. Please include as much information as possible including the name of report or link so our staff will be able to work on you request.
Telephone us directly on 0048 603 394 346 and an experienced member of team will be on hand to answer.
-
- Sample Pages
-
With the vast majority of our partners we can obtain Sample Pages to support your decision. This is something we can arrange without revealing your personal details.
It is important to note that we will not be able to provide you the exact data or statistics such as Market Size and Forecasts. Sample pages usually confirm the layout or the Categories included in Charts and Graphs, excluding specific data.
To ask for Sample Pages by contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Check for Alternatives
-
Whilst we try to make our online platform as easy to use as possible there is always the possibility that a better alternative has not been found in your search.
To avoid this possibility Contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346 and a Senior Team Member can review your requirements and send a list of possibilities with opinions and recommendations.
-
- Confirm Content
- Prices / Formats / Delivery
- Prices
-
All prices are set by our partners and should be exactly the same as those listed on their own websites. We work on a Revenue share basis ensuring that you never pay more than what is offered elsewhere.
Should you find the price cheaper on another platform we recommend you to Contact us as we should be able to match this price. You can Contact us though through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Discounts
-
As we work in close partnership with our Partners from time to time we can secure discounts and assist with negotiations, this is part of our personalised service to you.
Discounts can sometimes be arranged for speedily placed orders; multiple report purchases or Higher License purchases.
To check if a Discount is possible please Contact our experienced team through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Available Currencies
-
Most Market Reports on our platform are listed in USD or EURO based on the wishes of our Partners. To avoid currency fluctuations and potential price differentiations we do not offer the possibility to change the currency online.
Should you wish to pay in a different currency to that advertised online we do accept payments in USD, EURO, GBP and PLN. The price will be calculated based on the relevant exchange rate taken from our National Bank.
To pay in a different above currency to that advertised online please Contact our team and a quotation will be sent within a couple of hours with payment details.
-
- Licenses
-
License options vary from Partner to Partner as is usually based on the number of Users that will benefitting from the report. It is very important that License ordered is not breached as this could have potential negative consequences for you individually or your employer.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Global Site License
-
The Global Site License is the most comprehensive license available. By selecting this license, the Market Report can be shared with other ‘Allowed Users’ and any other member of staff from the same organisation regardless of geographic location.
It is important to note that this may exclude Parent Companies or Subsidiaries.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Formats
-
The most common format is PDF, however in certain circumstances data may be present in Excel format or Online, especially in the case of Database or Directories. In addition, for certain higher license options a CD may also be provided.
If you have questions or need clarification about the specific formats we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Delivery
-
Delivery is fulfilled by our partners directly. Once an order has been placed we inform the partner by sharing the delivery email details given in the order process.
Delivery is usually made within 24 hours of an order being placed, however it may take longer should your order be placed prior to the weekend or if otherwise specified on the Market Report details page. Additionally, if details have been not fully completed in the Order process a delay in delivery is possible.
If a delay in delivery is expected you will be informed about it immediately.
-
- Shipping Charges
-
As most Market Reports are delivered in PDF format we almost never have to add additional Shipping Charges. If, however you are ordering a Higher License service or a specific delivery format (e.g. CD version) charges may apply.
If you are concerned about additional Shipping Charges we recommend you to Contact us to double check.
-
- Prices
- Ordering
- By Credit Card
-
We work in Partnership with PayU to ensure payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way. PayU is the e-payments division of Naspers.
Naspers operates in over 133 International Markets and ranks 3rd Globally in terms of the number of e-commerce customers served.
For more information on PayU please visit: https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us
-
- By Money Transfer
-
If you require an invoice prior to payment, this is possible. To ensure a speedy delivery of the Market Report we require all relevant company details and you agree to maximum payment terms of 30 days from receipt of order.
With our regular clients deliver of the Market Report can be made prior to receiving payment, however in some circumstances we may ask for payment to be received before arranging for the Market Report to be delivered.
-
- By Credit Card
- Security
- Website security
-
We have specifically partnered with leading International companies to protect your privacy by using different technologies and processes to ensure security.
Everything submitted to Scotts International is encrypted via SSL (Secure Socket Layer) and all personal information provided to Scotts International is stored on computer systems with limited access in controlled environments.
-
- Credit Card Security
-
We partner with PayU (https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us) to ensure all credit card payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way.
PayU offers 250+ various payment channels and eWallet services across 4 continents allowing buyers to pay electronically, whether on a computer or a mobile device.
-
- Website security