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Report
Pakistan Telecom MNO - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
Market Report I 2026-01-16 I 95 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
Pakistan Telecom MNO Market Analysis
Pakistan Telecom MNO Market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 2.5 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 2.40 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 3.06 billion, growing at 4.11% CAGR over 2026-2031.
This healthy trajectory reflects sustained data consumption growth, the scheduled June 2025 5G launch, and regulator-driven quality-of-service mandates that are compelling operators to accelerate network upgrades. Rapid 4G migration, rising smartphone penetration, and an expanding digital-payments ecosystem are lifting average data usage per subscriber. At the same time, operators face a tight squeeze between dollar-denominated spectrum fees and rupee volatility, forcing careful tariff recalibration and energy-efficiency investments. Enterprise demand for private LTE and IoT connectivity in Pakistan's industrial corridors is opening new, higher-margin revenue streams that diversify away from low-ARPU consumer voice. Intensifying competition among the four national MNOs, coupled with looming market consolidation through the proposed PTCL-Telenor transaction, underscores the need for differentiated digital services, especially mobile financial solutions and content bundles.
Pakistan Telecom MNO Market Trends and Insights
Rapid 4G/5G Spectrum Refarming and Rollout Commitments
Jazz completed its nationwide 3G switch-off in November 2024, freeing 900 MHz and 2100 MHz blocks for 4G, while the Ministry of IT and Telecom approved a June 2025 commercial 5G launch covering 700 MHz, 2300 MHz, 2600 MHz, and 3500 MHz bands valued at USD 831.8 million . Coordinated refarming increases spectral efficiency, lowers per-bit cost, and accelerates nationwide 4G population coverage toward the PTA's 98% target.
Surge in Mobile Broadband Consumption and Digital-Payments Adoption
Average monthly data use climbed to 4.3 GB per subscriber in FY 2024-25, a 68.9% jump year over year, while mobile banking transactions hit 1.69 billion during the same period . JazzCash's 48 million registered wallets confirm how integrating payments with connectivity boosts stickiness and lifts blended ARPU above the sector's USD 1 baseline.
Energy-Cost Spikes Eroding EBITDA Margins of Tower and Edge Sites
Average utility tariffs rose 29% in FY 2024-25, and diesel costs increased a further 16%, inflating network OPEX by roughly PKR 18 billion across the four licensees. Hybrid solar-battery retrofits are underway but carry high upfront costs, slowing break-even and stretching balance sheets already burdened by foreign-currency debt.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
PTA-Driven Quality-of-Service Enforcement Boosting Network CAPEXEnterprise Push for Private LTE/5G and IoT Connectivity in Manufacturing CorridorsRupee Volatility Inflating Dollar-Denominated Spectrum Fees
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Data and internet services controlled a 51.15% share of the Pakistan telecom MNO market in 2025 and will remain the revenue anchor through 2031. Voice continues to contribute meaningful cash flows despite usage declines as operators pivot toward diaspora-oriented international bundles priced in hard currency. IoT and M2M connections represent only 1.3% of SIMs today but are growing fastest at a 4.18% CAGR. The agricultural cold-chain, smart metering, and fleet-tracking verticals are early adopters, and regulator-approved e-SIM frameworks should improve provisioning efficiency. Messaging revenue is shrinking because free OTT applications substitute SMS, yet bundled enterprise A2P services such as one-time-password delivery still generate sticky margins. OTT and PayTV gains reflect operator platforms that aggregate local dramas and sports rights, creating upsell paths beyond connectivity. These shifts confirm that data monetization, IoT enablement, and content bundling constitute the three pillars for sustaining top-line growth in a low-ARPU environment.
The IoT opportunity also elevates the importance of edge computing and narrowband spectrum allocations. Operators capable of integrating connectivity, devices, and analytics hold a first-mover advantage with export-oriented manufacturers subject to strict ISO traceability. In this context, the Pakistan telecom MNO market size for IoT services could surpass USD 191 million by 2031, albeit from a small base. Meanwhile, persistent rupee weakness adds urgency for operators to localize device supply chains to mitigate forex exposure, reinforcing the strategic value of domestic assembly partnerships.
The Pakistan Telecom MNO Market is Segmented by Service Type (Voice Services, Data and Internet Services, Messaging Services, Iot and M2M Services, OTT and PayTV Services, and Other Services), and End User (Enterprises, Consumer). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Subscribers).
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
Jazz (Pakistan Mobile Communications Ltd) Zong (CMPak) Telenor Pakistan Ufone (PTCL Group) Special Communications Organization (SCO)
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 MARKET LANDSCAPE
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Regulatory and Policy Framework
4.3 Spectrum Landscape and Competitive Holdings
4.4 Telecom Industry Ecosystem
4.5 Macroeconomic and External Drivers
4.6 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.6.1 Competitive Rivalry
4.6.2 Threat of New Entrants
4.6.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.6.4 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.6.5 Threat of Substitutes
4.7 Key MNO KPIs (2020-2025)
4.7.1 Unique Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rate
4.7.2 Mobile Internet Users and Penetration Rate
4.7.3 SIM Connections by Access Technology and Penetration
4.7.4 Cellular IoT / M2M Connections
4.7.5 Broadband Connections (Mobile and Fixed)
4.7.6 ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)
4.7.7 Average Data Usage per Subscription (GB / month)
4.8 Market Drivers
4.8.1 Rapid 4G/5G spectrum refarming and rollout commitments
4.8.2 Surge in mobile broadband consumption and digital-payments adoption
4.8.3 PTA-driven quality-of-service (QoS) enforcement boosting network CAPEX
4.8.4 Enterprise push for private LTE/5G and IoT connectivity in manufacturing corridors
4.8.5 Growing diaspora traffic stimulating international voice and OTT bundles
4.8.6 Nationwide fiber-to-tower programme unlocking backhaul bottlenecks
4.9 Market Restraints
4.9.1 Rupee volatility inflating dollar-denominated spectrum fees
4.9.2 Energy-cost spikes eroding EBITDA margins of tower/edge sites
4.9.3 Delayed USF disbursements slowing rural coverage targets
4.9.4 Grey-routing via OTT side-loading curbing international call revenues
4.10 Technological Outlook
4.11 Analysis of key business models in Telecom Sector
4.12 Analysis of Pricing Models and Pricing
5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)
5.1 Overall Telecom Revenue and ARPU
5.2 Service Type
5.2.1 Voice Services
5.2.2 Data and Internet Services
5.2.3 Messaging Services
5.2.4 IoT and M2M Services
5.2.5 OTT and PayTV Services
5.2.6 Other Services (VAS, Roaming and International Services, Enterprise and Wholesale Services, etc.)
5.3 End-user
5.3.1 Enterprises
5.3.2 Consumer
6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE?
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves and Investments by key vendors, 2023-2025
6.3 Market share analysis for MNOs, 2024
6.4 Product Benchmarking Analysis for mobile network services
6.5 MNO snapshot (subscribers, churn rate, ARPU, etc.)
6.6 Company Profiles* of MNOs (Includes Business Overview | Service Portfolio | Financials | Business Strategy and Recent Developments | SWOT Analysis)
6.6.1 Jazz (Pakistan Mobile Communications Ltd)
6.6.2 Zong (CMPak)
6.6.3 Telenor Pakistan
6.6.4 Ufone (PTCL Group)
6.6.5 Special Communications Organization (SCO)
7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment
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