Please Wait.....
Report
Nigeria Oil And Gas Upstream - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
Market Report I 2026-01-16 I 95 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
Nigeria Oil And Gas Upstream Market Analysis
Nigeria Oil And Gas Upstream Market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 6.45 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 6.20 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 7.85 billion, growing at 4.0% CAGR over 2026-2031.
Short-term contraction reflects the cost of regulatory transition and IOC divestments, while the rebound signals policy clarity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), tighter security in the Niger Delta, and steady sanctions for deep-water projects. Output recovery is already visible, with national production averaging 1,560 thousand barrels per day in February 2025, despite persistent sabotage risks. Deep-water assets continue to draw capital because offshore blocks face fewer security threats and offer larger reservoir sizes than onshore fields. Natural gas gains strategic importance under the "Decade-of-Gas" program, which links flaring reduction targets to fresh domestic and export demand. Indigenous independents now anchor M&A activity, reshaping cost structures and accelerating workovers in marginal fields.
Nigeria Oil And Gas Upstream Market Trends and Insights
Petroleum Industry Act Transforms Fiscal Architecture
The PIA swept away opaque production-sharing rules and introduced transparent royalty and tax bands that now underpin most field development models. Operators must commit 3% of annual OPEX to Host Community Trusts, a rule that formalizes local benefits and eases long-standing social tensions. Faster block awards are already evident: the 2024 mini-bid round placed 25 of 31 tracts under "drill-or-drop" timelines, forcing swift appraisal drilling. Chevron converted its legacy licenses under the new fiscal terms and plans to increase output to 165,000 b/d, while Shell reached a final investment decision (FID) on Bonga North, a USD 1 billion deep-water tie-back. The independent Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission now vets environmental baselines and local content plans before approvals, reducing opaque discretionary waivers that once delayed greenfield programs.
Security Operations Unlock Production Potential
A joint Navy-NNPC campaign destroyed 27 illegal refining camps in May 2025, cutting theft volumes that had wiped out whole barge convoys in 2023. Real-time pipeline surveillance, drone patrols, and community-linked surveillance contracts reduced vandal incidents by approximately 40% year-over-year, enabling 200,000 b/d of shut-in capacity to re-enter the grid. February 2025 national output rose by 34 thousand barrels per day (b/d) from January, underscoring the immediate gains. Digital fiber loops transmit leak-detection data to command centers, enabling field crews to shut valves before flow losses escalate, thereby reducing downtime across the Nembe, Trans-Niger, and Forcados systems. Sustainability depends on consistent funding for security forces and credible prosecution of arrested syndicates.
Infrastructure Vulnerability Constrains Growth
Annual losses exceeding USD 1 billion result from forced shutdowns, leak repairs, and stolen lifts, an erosion equivalent to a small-cap deep-water project every two years. Some operators now dedicate up to 20% of their field OPEX to armed escorts, pipeline pigging after sabotage, and community appeasement expenditures. Export terminals-Forcados, Bonny, and Brass-have each experienced multi-week outages since 2024, thereby multiplying the opportunity cost when Brent prices spike. NUPRC guidelines require operators to file detailed Security Risk Assessment plans with licence renewals, adding pre-FID overheads that pinch marginal fields.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Gas Infrastructure Drives Monetization StrategyIndigenous Independents Revive Marginal FieldsRegulatory Transition Creates Investment Uncertainty
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Offshore blocks accounted for 67.10% of 2025 revenue in the Nigerian upstream oil and gas market. High-productivity deep-water leases, such as OML 118 (Bonga), continue to attract infill drilling, which keeps plateau rates near 110,000 b/d post-FID. The Nigerian upstream oil and gas market size for offshore assets is projected to expand at a 4.44% CAGR through 2031, lifted by pre-sweater seismic imaging that improves drill-bit hit rates.
Reduced security exposure cuts non-productive time, while proximity to natural gas liquids provides monetization upside via FPSO off-take flexibility. State-mandated zero-routine-flaring targets require operators to integrate gas reinjection and power modules, creating local fabrication jobs at Lagos Free Zone yards. Onshore concessions remain cost-advantaged, but sabotage risks and communal compensation payments dilute returns, steering multinationals toward offshore reinvestment cycles.
Crude oil commanded 72.85% of the 2025 value; however, the natural-gas segment is expected to post the highest 5.74% CAGR by 2031, driven by policy support. The Nigerian upstream oil and gas market share for gas is set to rise once the AKK and OB3 pipelines synchronize with northern fertilizer complexes and captive-power plants.
NLNG Train-7 adds eight Mtpa of liquefaction capacity, assuring long-term offtake under Japan-Korea contracts. Domestic market reforms remove price caps, allowing industrial gas tariffs that finance upstream condensate stripping and compression packages. Associated-gas re-injection turns liabilities into economic barrels, dovetailing with the zero-flaring deadline. These shifts deepen the gas revenue mix and cushion oil-price volatility shocks.
The Nigeria Oil and Gas Upstream Market Report is Segmented by Location of Deployment (Onshore and Offshore), Resource Type (Crude Oil and Natural Gas), Well Type (Conventional and Unconventional), and Service (Exploration, Development and Production, and Decommissioning). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
NNPC Limited Nigerian National Petroleum Development Co. (NPDC) Shell Petroleum Development Company Chevron Nigeria Ltd. ExxonMobil Nigeria Unlimited TotalEnergies EP Nigeria Ltd. Seplat Energy Plc Aiteo Eastern E&P Eni/NAOC Oando Energy Resources Waltersmith Petroman Eroton Exploration & Production First E&P Addax Petroleum Oriental Energy Resources Shoreline Natural Resources Yinka Folawiyo Petroleum Amni International Sahara Group Upstream Lekoil Ltd.
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support
1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 Research Methodology
3 Executive Summary
4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) improves fiscal clarity
4.2.2 Crack-down on oil theft raises effective output
4.2.3 "Decade-of-Gas" monetisation push (NLNG Train-7, AKK)
4.2.4 CCUS pilots unlock future-proof barrels
4.2.5 Indigenous independents revive marginal fields
4.2.6 Digital oilfield analytics cut well downtime
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Pipeline vandalism & security risks persist
4.3.2 IOC divestment delays/regulatory bottlenecks
4.3.3 ESG-driven capital flight raises funding cost
4.3.4 Climate-driven extreme weather downtime offshore
4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Technological Outlook
4.6 Regulatory Landscape
4.7 Crude-Oil Production & Consumption Outlook
4.8 Natural-Gas Production & Consumption Outlook
4.9 Unconventional Resources CAPEX Outlook (tight oil, oil sands, deep-water)
4.10 Porters Five Forces
4.10.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.10.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.10.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.10.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.10.5 Industry Rivalry
4.11 PESTLE Analysis
5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts
5.1 By Location of Deployment
5.1.1 Onshore
5.1.2 Offshore
5.2 By Resource Type
5.2.1 Crude Oil
5.2.2 Natural Gas
5.3 By Well Type
5.3.1 Conventional
5.3.2 Unconventional
5.4 By Service
5.4.1 Exploration
5.4.2 Development and Production
5.4.3 Decommissioning
6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 NNPC Limited
6.4.2 Nigerian National Petroleum Development Co. (NPDC)
6.4.3 Shell Petroleum Development Company
6.4.4 Chevron Nigeria Ltd.
6.4.5 ExxonMobil Nigeria Unlimited
6.4.6 TotalEnergies EP Nigeria Ltd.
6.4.7 Seplat Energy Plc
6.4.8 Aiteo Eastern E&P
6.4.9 Eni/NAOC
6.4.10 Oando Energy Resources
6.4.11 Waltersmith Petroman
6.4.12 Eroton Exploration & Production
6.4.13 First E&P
6.4.14 Addax Petroleum
6.4.15 Oriental Energy Resources
6.4.16 Shoreline Natural Resources
6.4.17 Yinka Folawiyo Petroleum
6.4.18 Amni International
6.4.19 Sahara Group Upstream
6.4.20 Lekoil Ltd.
7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment
- Not Sure / Need Reassuring
- Confirm Content
-
Content is provided by our partners and every effort is made to make Market Report details as clear as possible. If you are not sure the exact content you require is included in this study you can Contact us to double check. To do this you can:
Use the ‘? ASK A QUESTION’ below the license / prices and to the right of this box. This will come directly to our team who will work on dealing with your request as soon as possible.
Write to directly on support@scotts-international.com with details. Please include as much information as possible including the name of report or link so our staff will be able to work on you request.
Telephone us directly on 0048 603 394 346 and an experienced member of team will be on hand to answer.
-
- Sample Pages
-
With the vast majority of our partners we can obtain Sample Pages to support your decision. This is something we can arrange without revealing your personal details.
It is important to note that we will not be able to provide you the exact data or statistics such as Market Size and Forecasts. Sample pages usually confirm the layout or the Categories included in Charts and Graphs, excluding specific data.
To ask for Sample Pages by contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Check for Alternatives
-
Whilst we try to make our online platform as easy to use as possible there is always the possibility that a better alternative has not been found in your search.
To avoid this possibility Contact us through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346 and a Senior Team Member can review your requirements and send a list of possibilities with opinions and recommendations.
-
- Confirm Content
- Prices / Formats / Delivery
- Prices
-
All prices are set by our partners and should be exactly the same as those listed on their own websites. We work on a Revenue share basis ensuring that you never pay more than what is offered elsewhere.
Should you find the price cheaper on another platform we recommend you to Contact us as we should be able to match this price. You can Contact us though through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Discounts
-
As we work in close partnership with our Partners from time to time we can secure discounts and assist with negotiations, this is part of our personalised service to you.
Discounts can sometimes be arranged for speedily placed orders; multiple report purchases or Higher License purchases.
To check if a Discount is possible please Contact our experienced team through ‘? ASK A QUESTION’, support@scotts-international.com, or by telephoning 0048 603 394 346.
-
- Available Currencies
-
Most Market Reports on our platform are listed in USD or EURO based on the wishes of our Partners. To avoid currency fluctuations and potential price differentiations we do not offer the possibility to change the currency online.
Should you wish to pay in a different currency to that advertised online we do accept payments in USD, EURO, GBP and PLN. The price will be calculated based on the relevant exchange rate taken from our National Bank.
To pay in a different above currency to that advertised online please Contact our team and a quotation will be sent within a couple of hours with payment details.
-
- Licenses
-
License options vary from Partner to Partner as is usually based on the number of Users that will benefitting from the report. It is very important that License ordered is not breached as this could have potential negative consequences for you individually or your employer.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Global Site License
-
The Global Site License is the most comprehensive license available. By selecting this license, the Market Report can be shared with other ‘Allowed Users’ and any other member of staff from the same organisation regardless of geographic location.
It is important to note that this may exclude Parent Companies or Subsidiaries.
If you have questions or need confirmation about the specific license we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Formats
-
The most common format is PDF, however in certain circumstances data may be present in Excel format or Online, especially in the case of Database or Directories. In addition, for certain higher license options a CD may also be provided.
If you have questions or need clarification about the specific formats we recommend you to Contact us and a detailed explanation will be provided.
-
- Delivery
-
Delivery is fulfilled by our partners directly. Once an order has been placed we inform the partner by sharing the delivery email details given in the order process.
Delivery is usually made within 24 hours of an order being placed, however it may take longer should your order be placed prior to the weekend or if otherwise specified on the Market Report details page. Additionally, if details have been not fully completed in the Order process a delay in delivery is possible.
If a delay in delivery is expected you will be informed about it immediately.
-
- Shipping Charges
-
As most Market Reports are delivered in PDF format we almost never have to add additional Shipping Charges. If, however you are ordering a Higher License service or a specific delivery format (e.g. CD version) charges may apply.
If you are concerned about additional Shipping Charges we recommend you to Contact us to double check.
-
- Prices
- Ordering
- By Credit Card
-
We work in Partnership with PayU to ensure payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way. PayU is the e-payments division of Naspers.
Naspers operates in over 133 International Markets and ranks 3rd Globally in terms of the number of e-commerce customers served.
For more information on PayU please visit: https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us
-
- By Money Transfer
-
If you require an invoice prior to payment, this is possible. To ensure a speedy delivery of the Market Report we require all relevant company details and you agree to maximum payment terms of 30 days from receipt of order.
With our regular clients deliver of the Market Report can be made prior to receiving payment, however in some circumstances we may ask for payment to be received before arranging for the Market Report to be delivered.
-
- By Credit Card
- Security
- Website security
-
We have specifically partnered with leading International companies to protect your privacy by using different technologies and processes to ensure security.
Everything submitted to Scotts International is encrypted via SSL (Secure Socket Layer) and all personal information provided to Scotts International is stored on computer systems with limited access in controlled environments.
-
- Credit Card Security
-
We partner with PayU (https://www.payu.pl/en/about-us) to ensure all credit card payments are made securely in a fast and effortless way.
PayU offers 250+ various payment channels and eWallet services across 4 continents allowing buyers to pay electronically, whether on a computer or a mobile device.
-
- Website security