Report

Mexico Retail Market Analysis

The Mexico retail market was valued at USD 420.24 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 435.03 billion in 2026 to reach USD 517.26 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 3.52% during the forecast period (2026-2031). Nearshoring-driven wage gains in northern industrial hubs are lifting discretionary spending on electronics, home improvement supplies, and automotive accessories, while Mexico's large informal economy continues to anchor grocery and personal-care demand in traditional corner stores. E-commerce adoption is accelerating as smartphone penetration surpasses 85% of adults and digital payments reach 45% of retailers, encouraging omnichannel investments among incumbent chains. Fintech micro-lending models expand purchasing power for low-income households and help modern retailers penetrate cash-dominant rural markets. Retail real-estate additions of more than 500,000 square meters in 2024 illustrate developers' confidence in modern trade growth potential, even as organized crime-related cargo theft raises distribution costs for high-value consumer goods. Competitive intensity remains moderate, with the top five players accounting for 36.2% of total revenues, leaving white-space opportunities for specialty formats and discount chains to capture share in underserved geographies.

Mexico Retail Market Trends and Insights



Rising Disposable Income and Middle-Class Expansion

Nearshoring investment of USD 46 billion over five years has raised manufacturing wages 15-20% above national averages, boosting purchasing power around industrial corridors. Elevated income levels translate into premiumization across electronics, appliances, and automotive accessories, encouraging retailers to widen assortments of higher-margin branded goods. Consumption upgrades spur format diversification as workers seek modern trade conveniences absent in traditional outlets. Retailers located in Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez, and Tijuana report double-digit same-store sales growth in discretionary categories, indicating robust elasticity to rising wages. Regional spillovers reach service sectors, expanding demand for dining, fashion, and wellness products. These patterns reinforce the Mexico retail market's resilience to macro volatility by diversifying consumer spending sources.

Accelerating E-Commerce and Digital Payment Adoption

Digital payment acceptance climbed from 22% to 45% of retail merchants between 2014 and 2022, and online purchases now account for two-thirds of smartphone transactions. E-commerce revenues grew 24.6% year-on-year in 2024 and are set to surpass USD 63 billion in 2025, making Mexico Latin America's fastest-rising digital retail arena. Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) offerings from startups such as Aplazo extend micro-credit to unbanked consumers, raising average ticket sizes in fashion and electronics stores. Amazon's partnership with Kueski exemplifies how global platforms adapt to local financial infrastructure gaps to stimulate demand. Domestic chains respond by integrating click-and-collect services, while 56% of retail executives deploy AI-based marketing tools to personalize promotions and boost conversion. Collectively, these shifts accelerate the Mexico retail market's channel migration from cash-heavy legacy systems to data-rich digital ecosystems.

High Informality Limits Modern Retail Penetration

Informal employment covers 56% of Mexico's workforce, preserving the dominance of cash-based corner stores in food and personal-care categories. These merchants offer flexible credit, personalized service, and doorstep proximity that organized chains find costly to replicate. CFDI 4.0 e-invoicing rules, while promoting tax compliance, impose technology costs that many small operators cannot absorb, risking further entrenchment of informal practices. As a result, modern retailers must maintain dual cash-and-digital systems, complicating inventory and accounting processes. The persistent informal share dilutes economies of scale, constrains pricing power, and slows the Mexico retail market's path to full formalization. Without targeted fiscal incentives or infrastructure support, uptake of modern trade among micro-merchants will likely remain gradual.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

Rapid Roll-Out of Modern Trade FormatsNear-Shoring Boom Lifting Industrial and Auto RetailLogistics Bottlenecks Inflate Distribution Costs

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Food, beverage & tobacco sustained 49.63% of the Mexico retail market size in 2025 as grocery purchases remained households' largest expenditure. Electronics & household appliances delivered a leading 10.21% CAGR and are set to capture a higher slice of the Mexico retail market share by 2031 as nearshoring lifts industrial wages and stimulates demand for home-improvement gadgets. Personal-care and household-care brands capitalize on premiumization, while apparel growth softens under 35% textile import tariffs that lift prices and encourage resale channels. Furniture and hobby products follow disposable-income trajectories, but seasonal tourism in coastal states adds niche demand for decor and sports equipment. Industrial and automotive products benefit from supplier proximity to new manufacturing plants, enabling shorter replenishment cycles. Cross-category marketing via loyalty apps promotes bundle purchases, smoothing category volatility and reinforcing revenue diversification inside the Mexico retail market.

Consumer electronics retailers intensify omnichannel tactics, integrating BNPL at checkout to raise conversion among credit-thin millennials, whereas grocery chains test dark-store micro-fulfillment to shorten delivery windows. Beverage manufacturers reformulate recipes to avoid front-of-pack warning labels, supplying retailers with healthier alternatives that carry higher margins. Tobacco volumes drift downward as excise taxes climb, but vaping accessories emerge as replacement sub-category. Retailer-owned brands scale in personal-care aisles, capturing price-sensitive shoppers without eroding premium brand allocations. Apparel specialists face sourcing challenges from tariff changes but remain competitive through rapid private-label design cycles and influencer marketing. Overall, diversified category performance stabilizes the Mexico retail market size against macro shocks.

The Mexico Retail Market Report is Segmented by Product Type (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Personal Care & Household Care; Apparel, Footwear & Accessories; Furniture, and More), Retail Channel (Traditional Mom & Pop Retail; Modern Trade Retail; E-Commerce & Others), Format (Hypermarkets; Supermarkets; Convenience Stores; Department Stores; Specialty Stores; Others). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica (Walmex) Organizacion Soriana FEMSA Comercio (OXXO) Chedraui Liverpool La Comer Grupo Elektra Costco Mexico Home Depot Mexico Grupo Sanborns Amazon Mexico Sears Mexico 7-Eleven Mexico H-E-B Mexico Grupo Soriana Hiper City Club PriceSmart Mexico Petco Mexico Office Depot Mexico Miniso Mexico DAX Stores

Additional Benefits:

The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support