Report

Europe Paper Packaging Market Analysis

The Europe paper packaging market is expected to grow from USD 95.81 billion in 2025 to USD 99.83 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 122.64 billion by 2031 at 4.20% CAGR over 2026-2031. The market gains momentum from the continent's regulatory shift toward circular economy models, widespread retailer preference for curbside-recyclable formats, and continuous technology upgrades in high-strength corrugated substrates. Fiber-based solutions increasingly displace plastic in food service, e-commerce, and meal-kit applications because they combine ease of recycling with lower carbon intensity confirmed in ISO 14040 life-cycle assessments. Upstream investments in recycled-content board capacity, especially at Nordic mills, mitigate raw-material risk while positioning suppliers for EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism compliance. Heightened merger activity, including the 2024 Smurfit-WestRock combination, tightens competition and accelerates vertical integration, allowing majors to secure virgin and recycled fiber supplies, optimize freight costs, and standardize sustainable sourcing audits across pan-European customer bases. Near-term input-cost headwinds linked to energy volatility squeeze margins; nevertheless, downstream demand remains resilient because online retail penetration, quick-commerce convenience, and increasingly stringent single-use-plastic bans jointly lift packaging volumes.

Europe Paper Packaging Market Trends and Insights



Rising demand for sustainable and recyclable packaging in Food and Beverage

European food and beverage brands publicly commit to 100% recyclable packaging targets for 2030, prompting procurement scorecards that prioritize fiber over multilayer plastics. Leading grocers impose shelf-readiness criteria that reward mono-material fiber trays, as shown by Marks & Spencer's rollout of paper-fiber ready-meal trays in May 2025. Distillers and brewers showcase flagship launches such as a 90% paper bottle for Scotch whisky, reinforcing consumer perception that paper embodies lower environmental impact. Life-cycle studies covering chocolate bar wrappers confirm lower greenhouse-gas footprints for paper against oriented polypropylene in every midpoint category. Packaging converters intensify collaboration with coating-technology suppliers to meet upcoming 25 ppb PFAS limits in August 2026, aligning product reformulations with brand owners' public sustainability roadmaps. As ISO 14040 compliance becomes mandatory for cross-border central procurement tenders, paper solutions with verified cradle-to-gate data sets gain preferred-supplier status across multinational F&B groups.

Rapid surge in e-commerce parcel volumes

European online retail purchases maintain double-digit growth, fueling a steep rise in box counts and ancillary cushioning across fulfillment centers. Corrugated consumption in the United Kingdom increased 12.6% between 2010 and 2024 as omnichannel grocers and specialty retailers upgraded distribution networks. Amazon reports the elimination of more than 1 billion single-use plastic mailers since 2018 by converting its European operations to 100% recyclable paper pouches and board envelopes in January 2025. Automated right-size packaging equipment, such as solutions codeveloped by Mondi and CMC Packaging Automation, generates on-demand box dimensions that cut paper use up to 40% while improving truck-cubic-utilization metrics. Urban grocery quick-commerce, projected to jump from EUR 25 billion in 2021 to EUR 72 billion by 2025, requires dimensionally optimized secondary packs that preserve product integrity in 10-minute delivery windows. Consequently, converters prioritize high-speed die-cutting, digital print customization, and inline quality-control sensors to meet both volume scale and branding agility demanded by e-commerce merchants.

Deforestation concerns and raw-material supply volatility

The EU Deforestation Regulation, effective 2025, mandates traceability back to geolocated forest plots, adding 3-5% to procurement overhead as converters implement satellite verification and blockchain ledgers. Nordic sawmill capacity interruptions, stemming from electricity-cost surges and periodic labor stoppages, and thin virgin-fiber availability, are forcing buyers to tap spot markets at premium prices. Billerud's productivity program underscores industry-wide urgency to offset margin compression arising from pulp price spikes and raw-material scarcity. Alternative fibers such as wheat straw and miscanthus attract attention for molded-fiber food bowls, yet inconsistent fiber length and brightness curtail adoption for high-definition print packs. Geographic diversification toward Iberian and Baltic forests mitigates concentration risk but extends logistics chains, partially reversing carbon-footprint gains. Over the medium term, mills expedite closed-loop water systems and reforestation commitments to reassure stakeholders and comply with tightening due diligence audits.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

EU Single-Use Plastics Directive accelerating fiber substitutionAdvancements in lightweight, high-strength corrugated technologyImproving recyclability of flexible plastics narrowing advantage

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Corrugated boxes held 37.92% of 2025 revenue, underscoring their status as the workhorse format across fulfillment, industrial, and grocery distribution channels. Europe's paper packaging market size for corrugated boxes is projected to compound steadily, given e-commerce parcel proliferation, customized print runs, and continuous lightweighting gains that lower freight emissions without forfeiting crush strength. Liquid cartons post the fastest 5.12% CAGR through 2031, propelled by dairy-alternative beverages, shelf-stable juice lines, and brand-led commitments to curb multilayer plastics usage.

Secondary products such as folding cartons maintain relevance for pharmaceutical blister overwraps and high-graphic personal-care packs where precise creasing and glossy varnishes create shelf appeal. Paper sacks and retail bags regain momentum as national bans phase out single-use plastic carriers, with grocers switching to kraft options featuring wet-strength additives for reuse durability. Specialty niches-tear-resistant freezer bags, shaped formed-fiber trays, and molded-pulp void-fill expand addressable volumes, yet corrugated remains the anchor that underpins converter plant utilization rates and capex justification across the region.

Recycled grades captured 55.98% share in 2025, an outcome of stringent post-consumer content targets and robust collection systems that feed domestic mills. Europe paper packaging market share for recycled liner is expected to widen as CBAM makes imports of virgin grades more expensive relative to low-carbon recycled sheet. High-quality white-top testliner gains favor in display-ready cases requiring printable surfaces, while brown testliner dominates standard shipping cartons.

Virgin-fiber substrates remain indispensable for premium cosmetics gift boxes, medical device manuals, and folding cartons demanding pristine print fidelity and superior stiffness. Composite paperboard featuring dispersion or extrusion barriers occupies a middle ground where water-vapor and fat resistance are critical, yet PFAS-phase-out risk tempers near-term expansion. Supply chains gravitate toward dual-sourcing strategies, combining Scandinavian softwood kraft with Iberian eucalyptus hardwood to balance strength and smoothness. Mills engage in circularity partnerships with retailers to backhaul OCC (old corrugated containers) from distribution centers, shortening loop time and securing feedstock purity levels imperative for food-grade recycled content.

The Europe Paper Packaging Market Report is Segmented by Product Type (Folding Cartons, Corrugated Boxes, Paper Bags and Sacks, and More), Material Type (Virgin Fiber Paper, and More), End-User Industry ( Healthcare and Pharmaceutical, Personal Care and Household, and More), Packaging Format (Primary Packaging, Secondary Packaging, and Tertiary Packaging), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

Smurfit WestRock Mondi plc International Paper Company Stora Enso Oyj Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA Metsa Board Oyj Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Prinzhorn Holding GmbH Progroup AG Schumacher Packaging GmbH Klingele Papierwerke GmbH & Co. KG Graphic Packaging Holding Company RAJA Groupe VPK Packaging Group NV RDM Group (Reno De Medici S.p.A.) Lucart S.p.A. Essity AB Palm GmbH & Co. KG

Additional Benefits:

The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support