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Report
Coffee Trade Analysis - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
Market Report I 2025-06-01 I 120 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
Coffee Trade Analysis Market Analysis
The global coffee trading market size reached USD 135.2 billion in 2025 and is on course to attain USD 179.8 billion by 2030, advancing at a 5.9% CAGR. A resilient supply base, rising disposable incomes in emerging economies, and premiumization trends are keeping demand ahead of climatically constrained output. Historic price volatility, including the record USD 5.1 per kg Vietnamese benchmark in February 2025, is prompting traders to strengthen hedging and inventory strategies. Technology-enabled direct-trade platforms are narrowing the distance between growers and roasters, while sustainability compliance costs reshape sourcing choices. Europe preserves its leading consumption position, yet Asia-Pacific is growing fastest as urban lifestyles tip beverage choices toward coffee and away from traditional tea. Climate-related yield swings in Brazil and Vietnam remain the single largest uncertainty for the global coffee trading market.
Global Coffee Trade Analysis Market Trends and Insights
Growing Specialty-Coffee Demand in Emerging Economies
Robust retail expansion underlies a structural uplift in Asia-Pacific demand, where China's branded outlet count jumped to almost 50,000 units in 2024, and consumers increasingly favor single-origin pour-overs. India and Vietnam now show similar urban lifestyle patterns, diverting premium beans into domestic circuits and reducing export availability. Vietnamese export volumes fell 38.2% between October 2024 and January 2025, even as value rose 8.8%, illustrating supply tightness.
Expansion of Sustainable-Certified Coffee Procurement
European shoppers pay confirmed premiums for UTZ labels on a 250 g pack, proving the commercial logic for certified sourcing. Nonetheless, only 26% of beans grown under a Voluntary Sustainability Standard (VSS) actually enter the market as certified, which erodes value capture. Traders capable of merging multiple labels or deploying proprietary responsibility programs are, therefore, winning shares. Certification complexity, once a barrier, is quickly turning into a differentiator for digitally enabled intermediaries.
Arabica Price Volatility
Brazilian arabica production is projected to drop 12.4% to 34.7 million bags in the 2025-26 harvest, causing spot prices to spike and exposing roasters that reduced hedging cover. Industry leaders, including JDE Peet's and Starbucks, face higher procurement costs that ultimately flow into retail prices. The C-price benchmark also diverges from on-farm costs, prompting growers to bypass cooperatives and sell to intermediaries when prices soar, undermining fair-trade structures.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Rising Per-Capita Coffee Consumption Globally / Blockchain-Enabled Traceability Premiums / Stricter Pesticide-Residue Limits /
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
The Coffee Trade Analysis Market Report is Segmented by Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, Middle East, and Africa). The Report Includes Import Analysis (Value and Volume) and Export Analysis (Value and Volume). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Metric Tons).
Geography Analysis
Europe remained the largest regional buyer with a 30.1% share in 2024, anchored by sophisticated sustainability preferences and mature retail infrastructure. The EU Deforestation Regulation enters force at the end of 2025, positioning the bloc as a global compliance trend-setter while tightening market entry rules. Coffee-shop formats in Western Europe keep evolving, blending premium single-origin brews with value lunch combinations that shelter operators from price fatigue.
Asia-Pacific is the growth engine of the global coffee trading market, expanding at a 7.3% CAGR by 2030. China's outlet boom underscores a swift cultural shift toward coffee and signals reduced sensitivity to foreign exchange swings as domestic consumption rises. India's cafe culture is still at an early phase, but already shows robust same-store sales, while Vietnam's dual role as producer and consumer tightens export flows. Instant formats dominate in many Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies because they suit on-the-go habits and humid climates where refrigeration is costly.
North America benefits from deep futures markets that smooth procurement but faces labor constraints in specialty retail. Large roasters hedge exposure with diversified origin baskets, balancing South American arabica with African and Asian Robusta. South America's dual identity as the main supply hub and a growth consumption region test logistical networks, especially during harvest peaks when port congestion lengthens transit times. Middle Eastern governments allocate capital to local farming, aiming to capture more of the value chain and lessen import bills.
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
Market Overview / Market Drivers / Market Restraints / Value/Supply-Chain Analysis / Regulatory Landscape / Technological Outlook / PESTLE Analysis / List of Stakeholders /
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format /
3 months of analyst support /
1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 Research Methodology
3 Executive Summary
4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Growing specialty-coffee demand in emerging economies
4.2.2 Expansion of sustainable-certified coffee procurement
4.2.3 Rising per-capita coffee consumption globally
4.2.4 Blockchain-enabled traceability premiums
4.2.5 Climate-smart intercropping boosting yields
4.2.6 Post-COVID revival of out-of-home channels
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Arabica price volatility
4.3.2 Stricter pesticide-residue limits
4.3.3 Higher Red-Sea route insurance premiums
4.3.4 Origin-country farm-labor shortages
4.4 Value/Supply-Chain Analysis
4.5 Regulatory Landscape
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 PESTLE Analysis
5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)
5.1 By Geography (Import Analysis [Volume and Value] and Export Analysis [Volume and Value])
5.1.1 North America
5.1.1.1 United States
5.1.1.2 Canada
5.1.1.3 Mexico
5.1.2 South America
5.1.2.1 Brazil
5.1.2.2 Colombia
5.1.2.3 Peru
5.1.2.4 Ecuador
5.1.3 Europe
5.1.3.1 Germany
5.1.3.2 Italy
5.1.3.3 France
5.1.3.4 United Kingdom
5.1.3.5 Spain
5.1.3.6 Russia
5.1.4 Asia-Pacific
5.1.4.1 China
5.1.4.2 Japan
5.1.4.3 India
5.1.4.4 Indonesia
5.1.4.5 Philippines
5.1.4.6 Vietnam
5.1.5 Middle East
5.1.5.1 Saudi Arabia
5.1.5.2 United Arab Emirates
5.1.6 Africa
5.1.6.1 Ethiopia
5.1.6.2 Kenya
5.1.6.3 Uganda
5.1.6.4 South Africa
6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 List of Stakeholders
7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook
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