Report

Canada Solar Energy Market Analysis

The Canada Solar Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 6.58 gigawatt in 2025 to 9.56 gigawatt by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.76% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

The expansion rides on an unprecedented alignment of federal investment tax credits and provincial renewable portfolio standards that has lowered developer risk, compressed financing spreads, and accelerated project financial close timelines. Alberta's complete coal phase-out in 2024 removed 3.4 million t of annual emissions and opened immediate replacement demand; that single policy shift unlocked fast-track approvals for solar and wind projects already in advanced interconnection studies. Corporate power-purchase agreements (PPAs) from data-center and mining operators now underwrite over one-third of new capacity, creating a deep, credit-worthy offtake pool that rivals traditional utility tenders. Module efficiencies exceeding 24% and rising inverter intelligence have cut balance-of-plant costs and enabled utility-scale projects in provinces once considered secondary solar locations, while Indigenous equity structures de-risk community opposition and ensure local benefit sharing. Collectively, these forces sustain the upward trajectory of the Canada renewable energy market even as grid operators impose stricter flexibility requirements.

Canada Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights



Accelerating Provincial RPS & Clean-Energy Auctions

Renewable portfolio standards paired with competitive auctions provide long-range visibility that lowers revenue risk and sparks price discovery beneficial to ratepayers. Hydro-Quebec's 2024 tender cleared 1,550 MW of wind at CAD 0.078/kWh, confirming the cost advantage of large-scale procurements. Ontario's 2024 RFP-the province's largest ever-invites 2.5 GW of non-emitting capacity, signalling higher procurement volumes through 2030. British Columbia awarded 30-year electricity-purchase agreements to nine Indigenous-led wind projects that together mobilise CAD 5-6 billion in private capital and institutionalise reconciliation objectives within the procurement design. These programs shift development risk to private bidders, spur technological advances such as larger rotor wind turbines, and streamline interconnection sequencing through predefined milestone schedules. As auction strike prices continue to fall, provincial regulators gain fiscal room to extend electrification incentives for transport and buildings, looping new demand back into the Canada renewable energy market.

Accelerated Coal-to-Renewables Displacement Mandate

The federal Clean Electricity Regulations set interim emission-intensity limits that preclude coal beyond mid-decade, creating immediate demand for replacement. Alberta's last coal plant retired in 2024, shrinking its coal generation share from 80% in 2001 to 0%, and creating a 3,400 MW supply gap earmarked for renewable or hybrid solutions. Existing transmission corridors and legacy plant sites shorten lead times and cut interconnection costs for replacement solar facilities. Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia are on comparable phase-out timetables, adding urgency to utility procurement calendars. Grid operators have accelerated calls for storage co-location, and developers increasingly integrate four-hour batteries in their bids. Collectively, near-term coal retirements add 1.8% to the CAGR forecast of the Canada renewable energy market.

Interconnection Queue Congestion in Alberta & Ontario

More than 118 projects representing CAD 33 billion stalled during Alberta's 2023 renewables pause, exposing developers to carrying-cost overruns and schedule slippage. Similar bottlenecks in Ontario's West of London and Toronto corridors have pushed completion timelines beyond 2027 for several contracted projects. Studies and upgrades add an extra 2-3 years of uncertainty, trimming near-term capacity additions and shaving 0.8 percentage points from the five-year CAGR of the Canada renewable energy market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

Declining LCOE of Bifacial & TOPCon PV Modules / Corporate PPAs from Data-Center & Mining Sectors / Seasonal Irradiance Mismatch Affecting Capacity-Factors /

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Solar PV represented 100% of installed capacity in 2024 and is forecast to rise at a 9% CAGR, comfortably ahead of total market growth. With bifacial modules lifting winter generation and TOPCon cells pushing conversion efficiency beyond 24%, projects deliver higher NPV than legacy designs. The Canada renewable energy market size for utility-scale PV is set to climb from 3,800 MW in 2025 to 5,900 MW by 2030, underscoring developer confidence in the segment. The absence of concentrated solar power reduces technological fragmentation, allowing the supply chain to specialise and cut costs further. Canadian Solar, Heliene, and Silfab have announced plant expansions that could collectively supply two-thirds of domestic demand, minimizing logistic bottlenecks. As component prices drop, land-use intensity falls to 3.5 acres per MW, easing zoning hurdles in peri-urban zones. Integrating four-hour batteries at 15-30% of PV nameplate capacity is becoming standard as markets move to capacity-based resource adequacy mechanisms. Over the forecast window, the Canada renewable energy market will continue to pivot around PV innovations in materials science and factory automation.

Ontario, Alberta, and Saskatchewan have increased allowable system sizes for net-metering, further propelling commercial rooftop adoption. PV integrators are bundling asset-management software that uses real-time irradiance telemetry to flag underperformance within hours rather than weeks. As cost parity with bulk-system power converges, PV portfolios attract pension-fund capital seeking inflation-indexed cash flows. Meanwhile, advanced plant-level controls supply essential grid support, from voltage ride-through to synthetic inertia, positioning PV to capture ancillary-service revenue once limited to rotating machines. The decisive economic and policy advantage means the Canada renewable energy market will continue to be synonymous with solar PV through 2030.

The Canada Solar Energy Market Report is Segmented by Technology (Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrated Solar Power ), Application (Utility-Scale, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential), and Component (Solar Modules, Inverters, Mounting Structures, and Balance of Systems). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

Canadian Solar Inc. / Brookfield Renewable Partners / Boralex Inc. / Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. / EDF Renewables Canada / Greengate Power Corporation / DP Energy Canada Ltd. / AMP Solar Group Inc. / BluEarth Renewables Inc. / Northland Power Inc. / RES Canada / Elemental Energy / Saturn Power / Solar Provider Group / Kuby Renewable Energy Ltd. / Great Canadian Solar Ltd. / miEnergy Inc. / Quadra Power Inc. / Azgard Solar Inc. / Gorkon Industries /

Additional Benefits:

The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format /
3 months of analyst support /