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Report
Canada Commercial Construction - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
Market Report I 2026-02-09 I 150 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
Canada Commercial Construction Market Analysis
The Canada Commercial Construction Market is expected to grow from USD 64.37 billion in 2025 to USD 67.33 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 84.26 billion by 2031 at 4.60% CAGR over 2026-2031. This trajectory rests on four durable trends: immigration-driven urban density that raises demand for vertical mixed-use projects, rapid e-commerce growth that re-orders logistics footprints, policy-backed green retrofits that shift spending toward existing assets, and large digital infrastructure programs that draw capital into data centers and battery plants. Together, they sustain activity across the full project cycle from permitting to fit-out, even as the sector manages financing constraints, labor shortages, and material price volatility. Developers are reallocating capital toward renovation work, high-spec industrial buildings, and public-private megaprojects because these niches offer clearer cash-flow visibility and policy support, helping contractors hedge cyclical office risk. Competitive advantage is accruing to firms that can bundle design-build services with energy-efficiency expertise and culturally attuned Indigenous partnerships, allowing them to address both urban core intensity and northern corridor build-outs.
Canada Commercial Construction Market Trends and Insights
Immigration-led demand for mixed-use assets
Canada's permanent-resident intake concentrates newcomers in the three largest metros, compressing land supply and boosting the appeal of towers that stack retail, office, and rental units within one footprint. Federal regularization of out-of-status construction workers fills labor gaps while those same workers form part of the tenant base, reinforcing demand. Mixed-use assets fetch premium capital values because they address housing shortages and offer daily foot traffic to ground-floor retailers. Developers therefore pivot toward vertically integrated projects that can clear zoning hurdles by combining community benefits with density. Construction firms with deep urban-infill experience are best placed to capture this sustained pipeline.
E-commerce logistics build-outs
Record freight volumes and supply-chain regionalization propelled 16.3 million ft of new warehouse completions in 2023, yet national availability stayed at a tight 4.3%, forcing lease rates up 7.7% year over year. Retail majors such as Walmart Canada earmarked USD 5.07 billion for automated distribution hubs and last-mile nodes, pushing developers to design facilities with 40-foot clear heights, heavy-floor loads, and robust grid connections. As fulfillment expands from national to micro-regional networks, contractors with tilt-up concrete and automation-ready build capabilities secure recurrent projects across the Greater Toronto Area and the Fraser Valley.
Skilled-trades shortages & wage inflation
BuildForce Canada foresees a 380,500-worker gap by 2034, intensifying competition for electricians, crane operators, and HVAC technicians. Female and Indigenous participation remains below 6%, signaling the size of untapped pools, yet apprenticeship pipelines lag immediate site demand. Contractors raise pay and introduce four-day workweeks to retain crews, which squeezes margins on fixed-price bids. Without productivity gains from robotics or modularization this labor crunch will persist as the main drag on the Canada commercial construction market.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Green-building retrofit mandatesData-center & EV-battery megaproject pipelineElevated financing costs & tighter lending
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Office construction maintained 35.42% of the Canada commercial construction market share in 2025 even as national CBD vacancy exceeded 12%. Developers liquefy risk by focusing on energy-efficient Class A towers with flexible floorplates attractive to tech tenants. Tenant improvement scopes include touchless access, air-quality sensors, and demountable walls that align with hybrid work dynamics. Industrial & logistics, while smaller, posts the fastest 5.34% CAGR through 2031 as retailers shift from just-in-time to just-in-case inventories. Demand centers on 500,000 ft boxes within 30 minutes of population nodes, supporting the Canada commercial construction market size uplift from rising land values. Walmart's USD 5.07 billion Vaughan hub showcases how automation-ready design now dictates column spacing and power redundancy, directing more engineering fees to MEP specialists.
The office segment's future depends on retrofit depth: landlords convert obsolete floors to co-working suites or residential units, sustaining contractor pipelines even if net new starts slow. Meanwhile industrial developers exploit accelerated permitting lanes in Alberta and Ontario, shortening cycle times and reinforcing their growth premium. Combined, these dynamics keep sector diversification broad and mitigate cyclical shocks to the overall Canada commercial construction market.
The Canada Commercial Construction Market Report is Segmented by Commercial Sector Type (Office, Retail, Industrial and Logistics and Others), by Construction Type (New Construction and Renovation), by Investment Source (Public and Private), and by Geography (Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, Ottawa and the Rest of Canada). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
PCL Construction EllisDon Corp. Graham Group AtkinsRealis (SNC-Lavalin) Bird Construction Aecon Group Ledcor Group Pomerleau Inc. Turner Construction Canada Clark Builders Chandos Construction Broccolini Construction Stuart Olson Kiewit Canada EllisDon Capital Maple Reinders Buttcon Ltd. ITC Construction Urbacon Walsh Canada
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
3 months of analyst support
1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 Research Methodology
3 Executive Summary
4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.2.1 Immigration-led demand for mixed-use assets
4.2.2 E-commerce logistics build-outs
4.2.3 Green-building retrofit mandates
4.2.4 Data-center & EV-battery megaproject pipeline
4.2.5 Indigenous-led PPP corridor developments
4.3 Market Restraints
4.3.1 Skilled-trades shortages & wage inflation
4.3.2 Elevated financing costs & tighter lending
4.3.3 Persistent office-vacancy overhang
4.3.4 Steel/aluminum tariff volatility
4.4 Government Initiatives & Vision
4.5 Regulatory Outlook
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Force Analysis
4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
4.8 Pricing (Construction Materials) and Construction Cost (Materials, Labour, Equipment) Analysis
4.9 Comparison of Key Industry Metrics of Canada with Other Countries
4.10 Key Upcoming/Ongoing Projects (with a focus on Mega Projects)
5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value, In USD Billion)
5.1 By Commercial Sector Type
5.1.1 Office
5.1.2 Retail
5.1.3 Industrial and Logistics
5.1.4 Others
5.2 By Construction Type
5.2.1 New Construction
5.2.2 Renovation
5.3 By Investment Source
5.3.1 Public
5.3.2 Private
5.4 By Geography
5.4.1 Toronto
5.4.2 Vancouver
5.4.3 Montreal
5.4.4 Calgary
5.4.5 Ottawa
5.4.6 Rest of Canada
6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
6.4.1 PCL Construction
6.4.2 EllisDon Corp.
6.4.3 Graham Group
6.4.4 AtkinsRealis (SNC-Lavalin)
6.4.5 Bird Construction
6.4.6 Aecon Group
6.4.7 Ledcor Group
6.4.8 Pomerleau Inc.
6.4.9 Turner Construction Canada
6.4.10 Clark Builders
6.4.11 Chandos Construction
6.4.12 Broccolini Construction
6.4.13 Stuart Olson
6.4.14 Kiewit Canada
6.4.15 EllisDon Capital
6.4.16 Maple Reinders
6.4.17 Buttcon Ltd.
6.4.18 ITC Construction
6.4.19 Urbacon
6.4.20 Walsh Canada
7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
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