Report

Autonomous Truck Market Analysis

The Autonomous Truck Market size is estimated at USD 39.51 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 65.72 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 10.70% during the forecast period (2025-2030). Persistent driver shortages and rising labor costs challenge traditional fleets, driving the adoption of heavy-duty platforms with high asset utilization. Regulatory mandates, such as emergency-braking systems, and falling sensor prices are accelerating modernization and commercial pilots. As Level 4 trucks prove reliable on long-haul routes, stakeholders benefit from faster pay-back cycles, increased trailer turnover, and fuel and emission savings, advancing the autonomous truck market toward scaled deployment.

Global Autonomous Truck Market Trends and Insights



Driver Shortage & Rising Line-Haul Labor Cost

The American Trucking Associations reported more than 80,000 unfilled heavy-duty positions in 2024, a gap expected to widen as driver retirements outpace new entrants. Mandatory rest breaks and overtime premiums inflate total cost of ownership, making 24/7 autonomous operation financially attractive on routes exceeding 500 miles. Successful Level 4 pilots along Texas corridors have doubled trailer turns and cut per-mile labor spend by over 35%. Logistics majors are now redesigning networks with autonomous trunk lines complemented by human-driven last-mile loops.

Demand for 24/7 Hub-to-Hub Logistics

E-commerce fulfillment windows and just-in-time manufacturing call for clock-round capacity. The controlled access of interstate highways suits sensor perception and redundancy targets, allowing fleets to dispatch autonomous Class 8 tractors on predictable lanes. Aurora completed a 1,200-mile driver-out run between Dallas and Houston in 2024, validating the uptime promise of hub-to-hub models. Retail shippers link the resulting latency reductions to inventory shrink, propelling long-term contracts for dedicated autonomous capacity.

Patchwork Global Regulation & Cross-Border Liability

California's AB 316, which restricts autonomous trucks above 10,000 lb without on-board human operators, underscores the fragmented U.S. policy landscape. Similar inconsistencies appear across EU member states despite Brussels' push for a unified framework by 2026. These mismatches require separate permitting, insurance riders, and data-reporting workflows, diluting economies of scale and postponing continent-wide deployments.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

Tightening Safety Regulations / Platooning-Driven Fuel Savings & Emission Mandates / Cyber-Security & OTA Update Risks /

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Heavy-duty tractors accounted for 64.5% of the autonomous truck market size in 2024, reflecting the economic leverage of automating long-haul lanes where labor costs eclipse fuel as the largest expense line. Fleet CFO models show pay-back periods under four years when Level 4 systems pass 500-mile duty cycles at 95% uptime. Medium-duty units focus on regional grocery and parcel runs, balancing tighter curbweight limits with growing urban-access restrictions. Light-duty autonomous vans, boosted by e-commerce volumes, post the fastest growth at a 15.1% CAGR, aided by simplified form-factor sensor integration.

Technology partnerships reinforce heavy-duty leadership. Daimler Truck shipped a batch of autonomous-ready Freightliner Cascadia tractors to Torc Robotics for Texas trials, demonstrating OEM commitment to factory-installed redundancy architectures. Meanwhile, light-duty builders exploit camera-only perception to trim bill-of-material costs, positioning for last-mile autonomy once municipal rules evolve. The divergent trajectories suggest a barbell market split: high-value interstate rigs on one end and agile city vans on the other.

SAE 1-2 driver-assist suites represented 58.2% of the autonomous truck market share 2024, but the spotlight is shifting to Level 4 and set to foresee a growth of 26.25% CAGR by 2030. Annualized deployments of driver-out pilots rose 140% between 2024 and 2025, and capital inflows favor companies with L4 roadmaps. Volvo's VNL Autonomous platform, slated for customer delivery in 2025, illustrates OEM faith that full-route autonomy will unlock premium service contracts. Level 3 remains a bridging solution where regulations require fallback readiness, yet its commercial window is narrowing as regulators warm to complete driver removal in set corridors.

Investors endorse the transition: Waabi secured USD 200 million in a Series B round led by Uber and Nvidia to refine AI-first simulation, cutting road-test miles by 80%. This influx underscores the belief that scalable virtual training will speed homologation and compress time-to-revenue for Level 4 entrants. As high-definition mapping costs fall, market analysts expect Level 4 to pass 30% share of active freight miles by 2030, reshaping asset-scheduling logic and insurance underwriting norms.

The Autonomous Truck Market is Segmented by Truck Type (Light-Duty Trucks, and More), Level of Autonomy (SAE Level 1-2 (Driver Assist), and More), ADAS Features (Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Departure Warning, and More), Component (LIDAR, RADAR, Cameras, and More), Drive Type (IC Engine, Battery-Electric, Hybrid, and More), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Geography Analysis

North America captured 33.7% of the autonomous truck market share in 2024 due to permissive state-level pilot frameworks and a 48,000-mile Interstate system favoring lane-centered autonomy. Texas hosts commercial routes linking Dallas, Houston, El Paso, and Phoenix, where Aurora, Kodiak, Volvo, and DHL operate revenue-generating loads. Venture funding remains robust: start-ups raised more than USD 1 billion across 2024-2025, reflecting investor confidence in near-term monetisation.

Europe contributed roughly one-third of the 2024 revenue. Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands spearhead testing thanks to early adoption of UNECE cybersecurity and lane-keeping directives. The Volvo-Daimler software JV positions EU OEMs to deliver over-the-air-upgradable platforms ahead of the 2026 GSR phase-in. Cross-border freight edges forward via digital corridor pilots such as Scandinavia-Hamburg, yet variable national certification timelines still hamper continent-wide scale.

Asia-Pacific remains the fastest-growing region at a 21.4% CAGR. China's Ministry of Transport endorsed nationwide smart-highway projects, enabling local players to rack up 20 million driver-out kilometres by mid-2025. Japan targets Level 4 coverage of trunk lines by 2027, pairing autonomy incentives with support for hydrogen and battery charging depots. South Korea's K-Mobility 2030 plan accelerates telematics coverage, while India eyes autonomous mining and port haulage as first-mover niches. Open-source stacks like Autoware give regional integrators a springboard to customise perception for left-hand-drive urban grids.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

AB Volvo / Daimler Truck AG / Traton SE / PACCAR Inc. / BYD Co. Ltd. / Tesla, Inc. / TuSimple / Aurora Innovation / Waymo Via / Plus.ai / Torc Robotics / Kodiak Robotics / Nikola Corp. / Einride / Embark Technology / Hyzon Motors / Gatik AI / Volvo-Uber ATG JV / Scania / Navistar /

Additional Benefits:

The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format /
3 months of analyst support /