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Report
Australia Commercial Real Estate - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
Market Report I 2025-06-01 I 150 Pages I Mordor Intelligence
Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis
The Australia commercial real estate market size is valued at USD 52.33 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 67.81 billion by 2030, reflecting a 5.32% CAGR over 2025-2030. This steady expansion signals the sector's resilience as post-pandemic recovery, government infrastructure spending, and accelerating digitalization lift demand across offices, logistics assets, hotels, and data-center facilities. Institutional investors are rotating capital toward core assets in Sydney and Melbourne, while data-localization rules are propelling hyperscale and edge data-center pipelines in several metropolitan areas. Hybrid work adoption continues to reshape CBD office requirements, yet premium ESG-compliant buildings in connectivity-rich precincts attract flight-to-quality tenants willing to pay rental premiums. Meanwhile, elevated construction costs and labor shortages are curbing new supply, tightening vacancy in prime logistics hubs and further supporting rent growth.
Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Trends and Insights
Surge in Institutional Capital Allocation to Core Office Assets
Transaction volumes in the office sector climbed 70% year-on-year to USD 4 billion during H1 2024 as foreign investors identified pricing dislocations in prime CBD towers. Capital is gravitating to trophy assets offering strong tenant covenants, sustainability credentials, and repositioning potential. Sydney's Collins Street precinct recorded effective rental growth in 16% of prime buildings as occupiers pursued amenity-rich space that supports hybrid work collaboration. Investor conviction remains anchored in Australia's stable legal framework and transparent leasing structures, positioning core offices as a defensive allocation within global portfolios. Portfolio managers also anticipate that the cyclical low in CBD valuations will converge with long-term occupational demand once hybrid strategies stabilize.
Accelerated Demand for Prime Industrial & Logistics Space Driven by E-Commerce
Warehouse vacancy has compressed to nearly 1%, driving double-digit rental growth in Sydney and Brisbane corridors as retailers and 3PLs secure last-mile assets near dense population clusters. Industrial properties now facilitate USD 1.2 trillion of goods flow annually, equating to 38% of household consumption. Supply-chain onshoring and automation requirements are prompting developers to prioritize high-clearance, technology-enabled facilities, with Perth registering the nation's fastest sequential rental increase at 1.8%. These conditions underpin sustained outperformance of logistics within the Australia commercial real estate market.
Persistent Work-from-Home Adoption Softening CBD Office Net Absorption
Regular remote work remains the norm for 36% of Australia's workforce, limiting space take-up and pushing Sydney and Melbourne vacancy above historic averages. Tenants are reducing footprints through desk-sharing and flexible workspace solutions while redirecting savings to premium fit-outs that enhance collaboration. Sub-lease availability has grown, intensifying competition among landlords to secure credit-worthy occupiers. Although 83% of CEOs expect full office returns within three years, prevailing behavioral patterns suggest hybrid models will persist, tempering absorption forecasts within the Australia commercial real estate market.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
Government-Backed Infrastructure Pipeline Lifting Commercial Land Values / Re-Rating of ESG-Compliant Green Buildings Unlocking Premium Rents / Elevated Construction Costs & Labour Shortages Delaying Project Delivery /
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Logistics captured 5.91% CAGR growth momentum and remains the fastest-advancing segment, while offices retained the largest 31% share of the Australia commercial real estate market in 2024. E-commerce penetration, onshoring of inventories, and automation investments have converted fulfillment centers into critical infrastructure, anchoring long-term demand. Vacancy below 1% in core east-coast corridors combined with restrictive land-use policies elevates pricing power for institutional landlords. Major players such as Goodman Group and GPT are scaling speculative builds to meet pre-commitments from retailers and 3PLs, often securing lease terms exceeding 10 years. Data-center campuses, classified as systems of national significance, add a high-value layer within industrial estates, attracting foreign capital and specialty operators.
Modern warehouses increasingly incorporate robotics, mezzanine floors, and high-capacity power to accommodate micro-fulfillment and cold-chain functions. These features command rental uplifts of 15%-20% compared with legacy stock. With the Australia commercial real estate market size for logistics assets projected to expand at 5.91% CAGR through 2030, investors view the segment as a secular outperformer. In contrast, office landlords are recalibrating portfolios by divesting non-core B-grade towers and reinvesting in mixed-use redevelopments to mitigate prolonged occupancy pressure.
The Australia Commercial Real Estate Market Report is Segmented by Property Type (Offices, Retail and More), by Business Model (Rental and Sales), by End User (Individuals / Households, Corporates & SMEs and More) and by Region (New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and More). The Report Offers Market Size and Forecasts in Value (USD) for all the Above Segments.
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
Dexus / Goodman Group / GPT Group / Charter Hall Group / Mirvac Group / Stockland / Lendlease Corporation / Scentre Group / Vicinity Centres / Cromwell Property Group / Centuria Capital Group / Investa Property Group / Frasers Property Australia / Growthpoint Properties Australia / AMP Capital Investors / Brookfield Asset Management (Australia) / Blackstone Real Estate (Australia) / GIC Real Estate (Australia) / LaSalle Investment Management (Australia) / QIC Real Estate /
Additional Benefits:
The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format /
3 months of analyst support /
1 Introduction
1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 Research Methodology
3 Executive Summary
4 Market Landscape
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Commercial Real-Estate Buying Trends - Socio-economic & Demographic Insights
4.3 Rental Yield Analysis
4.4 Capital-Market Penetration & REIT Presence
4.5 Regulatory Outlook
4.6 Technological Outlook
4.7 Insights into Real-Estate Tech and Start-ups Active in the Segment
4.8 Insights into Existing and Upcoming Projects
4.9 Market Drivers
4.9.1 Surge in Institutional Capital Allocation to Core Office Assets
4.9.2 Accelerated Demand for Prime Industrial & Logistics Space Driven by E-Commerce
4.9.3 Government-backed Infrastructure Pipeline Lifting Commercial Land Values
4.9.4 Re-rating of ESG-Compliant Green Buildings Unlocking Premium Rents
4.9.5 Rebound in International Tourism Revitalising CBD Hotel RevPAR
4.9.6 Data-Localisation Mandates Fueling Edge Data-Centre Development
4.10 Market Restraints
4.10.1 Persistent Work-from-Home Adoption Softening CBD Office Net Absorption
4.10.2 Elevated Construction Costs & Labour Shortages Delaying Project Delivery
4.10.3 Monetary Tightening and Rising Cap Rates Compressing Transactions
4.10.4 Heightened Climate-Risk Exposure Raising Insurance Premiums for Coastal Assets
4.11 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
4.11.1 Overview
4.11.2 Real-Estate Developers & Contractors - Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
4.11.3 Real-Estate Brokers & Agents - Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
4.11.4 Property-Management Companies - Key Quantitative and Qualitative Insights
4.11.5 Insights on Valuation Advisory and Other Real-Estate Services
4.11.6 State of the Building-Materials Industry & Partnerships with Key Developers
4.11.7 Insights on Key Strategic Real-Estate Investors / Buyers in the Market
4.12 Porter's Five Forces
4.12.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.12.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
4.12.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.12.4 Threat of Substitutes
4.12.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value)
5.1 By Property Type
5.1.1 Offices
5.1.2 Retail
5.1.3 Logistics
5.1.4 Others (industrial real estate, hospitality real estate, etc.)
5.2 By Business Model
5.2.1 Sales
5.2.2 Rental
5.3 By End-user
5.3.1 Individuals / Households
5.3.2 Corporates & SMEs
5.3.3 Others
5.4 By Region
5.4.1 New South Wales
5.4.2 Victoria
5.4.3 Queensland
5.4.4 Western Australia
5.4.5 South Australia
5.4.6 Australian Capital Territory
5.4.7 Tasmania
5.4.8 Northern Territory
6 Competitive Landscape
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Strategic Moves
6.3 Market Share Analysis
6.4 Company Profiles {(includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)}
6.4.1 Dexus
6.4.2 Goodman Group
6.4.3 GPT Group
6.4.4 Charter Hall Group
6.4.5 Mirvac Group
6.4.6 Stockland
6.4.7 Lendlease Corporation
6.4.8 Scentre Group
6.4.9 Vicinity Centres
6.4.10 Cromwell Property Group
6.4.11 Centuria Capital Group
6.4.12 Investa Property Group
6.4.13 Frasers Property Australia
6.4.14 Growthpoint Properties Australia
6.4.15 AMP Capital Investors
6.4.16 Brookfield Asset Management (Australia)
6.4.17 Blackstone Real Estate (Australia)
6.4.18 GIC Real Estate (Australia)
6.4.19 LaSalle Investment Management (Australia)
6.4.20 QIC Real Estate
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